Bank Earnings: JPM, WFC & Citi
JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 3, 20237 min read
Top Five Banks: JPMorgan Leads the Pack
JPM is really a large mutual fund with a bank attached, as shown in the table below.
822 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 29, 20237 min read
Calculate the WAC of Bank of America
If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....
2,777 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 12, 20238 min read
Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
1,032 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 9, 202312 min read
Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
4,217 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 13, 20238 min read
Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?
Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions
1,045 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 9, 20237 min read
Mortgage Wrap; PennyMac Financial, Rithm Capital & MSRs
We suspect that the IMBs will be sellers of conventional assets to defend their Ginnie Mae MSRs. Banks may be buyers of conventional assets
535 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 23, 20236 min read
Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
536 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 13, 20236 min read
Update: JPMorganChase & Wells Fargo
But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...
498 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 17, 20227 min read
Will the FOMC Break the Financials?
Will the market risk created by quantitative tightening (QT) tip over a large bank or nonbank financial firm?
801 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 12, 20227 min read
Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
699 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 2, 202210 min read
Large Banks: QT Winners & Losers
A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.
808 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 22, 20228 min read
The Bear Case for Ginnie Mae Issuers
The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent
731 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 24, 20226 min read
Interview: Scott Olson of Community Home Lenders of America
The banks have left the government market. Now Ginnie Mae seems bound and determined to drive the IMBs out of government lending as well
700 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 19, 20226 min read
Interest Rates & Bank Earnings
The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets
353 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 29, 20228 min read
Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi
Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet
575 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 15, 20225 min read
Update: US Banks Post-QE
Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term
410 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 29, 20222 min read
The IRA Bank Book | Outlook Q2 2022
The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...
402 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 4, 20225 min read
Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
498 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 11, 20225 min read
Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
493 views
Christopher Whalen
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