The Institutional Risk Analyst

Is AFRM maturing from a hot new fintech entrant to a familiar face headed for a bank license?? Yikes.

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity

Large universal banks that ply the capital markets and use essentially infinite leverage in the derivatives markets face challenges

Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"

JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.

JPM is really a large mutual fund with a bank attached, as shown in the table below.

If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....

Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates

The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer

Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions

We suspect that the IMBs will be sellers of conventional assets to defend their Ginnie Mae MSRs. Banks may be buyers of conventional assets

We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks

But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...

Will the market risk created by quantitative tightening (QT) tip over a large bank or nonbank financial firm?

How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?

A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.

The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent

The banks have left the government market. Now Ginnie Mae seems bound and determined to drive the IMBs out of government lending as well

The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets