The Institutional Risk Analyst

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico. 

Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns

Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling

Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis. 

WFC is not even out of dodge yet, but TD has cut off the fingers of one hand in yakuza style and is now headed for years of misery

In opposing Basel III, Chopra is doing the bidding of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) but big banks are very happy to have no rule at all.

The Citi decision to exit mortgage servicing perhaps made sense in 2017, but today not so much.

In dollar terms, the moves in 2023 were tiny vs the post March rally in 2020.

Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.

Joe Otting does not seem to understand the value of the Flagstar correspondent lending and mortgage servicing business...

The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.

Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.

BMO arguably has the weakest reserve position among the large Canadian banks....

Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?

Q: What do Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank have in common? Auditor, KPMG.

Net interest income at USB was down again for the fourth consecutive quarter, confirming a trend across the banking industry

As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses

Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.