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R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 1015 min read

Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...

Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.

2,634 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 246 min read

Update: Our Top Five Ideas

How will the sudden shift in Fed policy impact financials? Are we headed for a recession?

654 views

GSE Release Under Trump? Post-Rate Cut Margin Calls??

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 228 min read

GSE Release Under Trump? Post-Rate Cut Margin Calls??

Why should a private Fannie Mae be a 20% risk weight under Basel III, but PFSI or Mr. Cooper (COOP) are 100%?

478 views

Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 212 min read

Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF

Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI

720 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 86 min read

Market Volatility and Loan Defaults

The market tantrum which began on Friday was largely over by the market close on the following Tuesday.

1,182 views

Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 245 min read

Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services

Of note, PFSI has been growing share in wholesale, a direct challenge to UWMC

340 views

Freddie Mac Buying HELOCs? Really Meredith? | UWMC & Disappearing MSRs

R. Christopher Whalen

May 1010 min read

Freddie Mac Buying HELOCs? Really Meredith? | UWMC & Disappearing MSRs

We think Whitney’s comments about a surge in new lending from Freddie Mac buying home equity loans are poorly considered

3,608 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 86 min read

Portfolio Update & Mortgage Survivors

The survivors in mortgage finance optimize operations around purchasing loans from brokers/ correspondents, and direct to consumer (DTC)

475 views

Vanguard & Black Rock Control JP Morgan? | PNC & United Wholesale Mortgage

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 47 min read

Vanguard & Black Rock Control JP Morgan? | PNC & United Wholesale Mortgage

BK and Vanguard are above the 4.9% legal limit on ownership of voting shares of a bank. This fact gives the FDIC et al the power...

922 views

Update: UWMC & Rocket; Rate Cut Dreams Fade

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 297 min read

Update: UWMC & Rocket; Rate Cut Dreams Fade

Industry leaders believe that the FHFA wants the GSEs to offer issuers "repurchase insurance" to the tune of 25bps per loan.

585 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 1, 20236 min read

Update: PennyMac Financial Services

If we are marking balance sheet assets to actual market in the age of deflation, what of the heavily modeled world of servicing assets?

510 views

Mortgage Lenders Face Return of a Purchase Market

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 8, 20237 min read

Mortgage Lenders Face Return of a Purchase Market

The “winners” in the mortgage sector will be those larger players with equally large servicing books that can access bank funding

903 views

RKT Sinks, UWMC Wobbles, RITM Treads Water & Goldman Doubles Down

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 2, 20236 min read

RKT Sinks, UWMC Wobbles, RITM Treads Water & Goldman Doubles Down

GS is a securities dealer first and foremost and has no comparative advantage as a bank.

899 views

Interview: Mike Patterson, Freedom Mortgage

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 19, 20239 min read

Interview: Mike Patterson, Freedom Mortgage

In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we speak to Mike Patterson, COO of Freedom Mortgage.

936 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 16, 20226 min read

The Year That Was: 2022

Many in the Buy Side chorus are looking forward to lower interest rates, but we are concerned that next year could really be about solvency

627 views

Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 19, 20221 min read

Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead

Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?

542 views

TIAA Sells Everbank; Mortgage Earnings Wrap

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 4, 20225 min read

TIAA Sells Everbank; Mortgage Earnings Wrap

The big news this week starts with the poor showing by Rocket Companies (RKT), reporting a loss for Q3 2022 and a big decline in volumes.

310 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 27, 20225 min read

Update: Mr. Cooper Group

We agree with the assessment by Leon Cooperman of COOP management that this firm is one of the best positioned IMBs in the industry...

353 views

Interest Rates and Residential Mortgage REITs

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 9, 20228 min read

Interest Rates and Residential Mortgage REITs

We see an at least equal chance that margins will get squeezed for agency and MSR investors before they expand via higher interest rates

616 views

Memo to Gary Gensler: Beware the “Non-Controlling Interest”

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 6, 20226 min read

Memo to Gary Gensler: Beware the “Non-Controlling Interest”

As a result of the adoption of "artificial intelligence," the 21st Century investor is mostly a victim in waiting.

1,290 views