Fed Duration Trap Threatens Banks, SOMA
It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis.
top of page
The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2024 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 28, 20237 min read
Profile: Comerica Inc.
If the FOMC raises the target rate for fed funds further, then banks like CMA are likely to come under renewed selling pressure.
1,461 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 19, 20238 min read
Powell Ought to Pivot to Bond Sales
If the FOMC raises fed funds further, bank failures and perhaps even a market access crisis for the Treasury are next.
1,660 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 30, 20236 min read
QT, Interest Rates & Bank Solvency
At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.
2,254 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 23, 20236 min read
FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.
2,927 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 27, 20236 min read
QT & Powell's Liquidity Trap
The Federal Open Market Committee has arguably lost control of monetary policy and has placed America's banks in grave risk.
8,672 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 18, 20229 min read
Inflation, Politics & Fed Chairmen
As the scale of Fed open market operations grew since 2008, volatility has increased, rendering the adjustment from QE to QT problematic
1,071 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 8, 20225 min read
Update: The Bull Case for US Financials
Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...
526 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 21, 20227 min read
Interest Rates, FinTechs & MSRs
Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over
568 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 31, 20228 min read
Short Collateral & Long Tantrums
Demand for risk-free collateral and liquidity is largely a function of how JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon feels about risk on any given day
852 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 20, 20228 min read
The Fed and Housing
Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.
1,614 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 23, 20227 min read
Equity Market Valuations & Quantitative Tightening
The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.
1,004 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 8, 20228 min read
Chairman Powell's Duration Problem
Chairman Powell’s demeanor during the press conference when he spoke with Mike McKee suggests a man who knows he has a problem.
925 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 6, 20225 min read
Interest Rates, Stocks & MSRs
We think the chart below from FRED is worth any amount of words on the impact of QE on equity market valuations.
541 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 15, 20214 min read
As the Fed Ends QE, Stocks and Crypto Will Retreat
And in the meantime, we view the end of QE as a net negative for global stocks as well as crypto. Everything is correlated in a crowd.
1,148 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 25, 20216 min read
Three Questions for Chairman Powell
Look for the FOMC to act early and go big in terms of forward repurchase agreements at the first sign of liquidity stress.
671 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 13, 20217 min read
Debt Ceilings & Interest Rate Floors
When Treasury market yields trade and stay negative, look for the Federal Reserve Board to come to the rescue of MM funds and banks.
841 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 25, 20217 min read
Update: Q1 2021 Bank Earnings
US banks are running at income levels that are less than half of a year ago...
316 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 14, 20207 min read
Wag the Fed: Will the TGA force Rates Negative?
The risk presented by changes in behavior compelled by COVID have only begun to emerge into view in urban commercial real estate...
3,065 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 14, 20204 min read
Financial Repression and Inflation Targets
No matter who wins the presidential election in November, have no doubt that Chairman Powell is the most important man in town...
655 views
Christopher Whalen
bottom of page