Update: Our Top Five Ideas
How will the sudden shift in Fed policy impact financials? Are we headed for a recession?
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 212 min read
Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
718 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 59 min read
Debt Deflation in CRE? PFSI, COOP & RKT
If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC
686 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 297 min read
Update: UWMC & Rocket; Rate Cut Dreams Fade
Industry leaders believe that the FHFA wants the GSEs to offer issuers "repurchase insurance" to the tune of 25bps per loan.
581 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 1, 20236 min read
Update: PennyMac Financial Services
If we are marking balance sheet assets to actual market in the age of deflation, what of the heavily modeled world of servicing assets?
510 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 26, 20238 min read
Update: Mortgage Lenders, TBA Contango & MSRs
We look for lower prices for legacy MBS and MSRs as new allocations are used up and P&Ls sink deeper into the red...
1,104 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 2, 20236 min read
RKT Sinks, UWMC Wobbles, RITM Treads Water & Goldman Doubles Down
GS is a securities dealer first and foremost and has no comparative advantage as a bank.
898 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 16, 20226 min read
The Year That Was: 2022
Many in the Buy Side chorus are looking forward to lower interest rates, but we are concerned that next year could really be about solvency
627 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 19, 20221 min read
Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead
Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?
542 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 4, 20225 min read
TIAA Sells Everbank; Mortgage Earnings Wrap
The big news this week starts with the poor showing by Rocket Companies (RKT), reporting a loss for Q3 2022 and a big decline in volumes.
310 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 17, 20226 min read
No End to Conservatorship for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely sit in conservatorship indefinitely unless and until Congress acts first.
1,336 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 6, 20226 min read
Memo to Gary Gensler: Beware the “Non-Controlling Interest”
As a result of the adoption of "artificial intelligence," the 21st Century investor is mostly a victim in waiting.
1,289 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 25, 20227 min read
Update: HMPT, RKT, NRZ & UPST
UPST has seen its valuation cut by 60% since March of last year, when its common equity traded at a mere 31x book value.
313 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 12, 20216 min read
Update: Blend Labs, Guild Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage
To paraphrase our friend and fellow mortgage maven Rob Chrisman, ponder a 2022 lending market that’s 75% purchases and just 4.79 million uni
334 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 8, 20216 min read
Update: Rocket Companies, PennyMac Financial Services & Home Point
When issuers like RKT and PFSI are paying up for servicing assets, you know that the secondary loan market is getting tougher by the day.
365 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 23, 20217 min read
Interview: Lee Smith, Flagstar Bank
We expect to see a lot more M&A activity over the next 12 – 18 months, as that’s the only way for some players to grow share.
820 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 19, 20216 min read
Fed Chairman Jay Powell as RobinHood
There is, after all, no free lunch for investors when the Fed is serving the thin meal of Financial Repression
518 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 16, 20215 min read
Update: Rocket Companies and United Wholesale Mortgage
Growing numbers of investors are burned by mortgage stocks. Big question: Will the industry snap back due to now falling interest rates?
402 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 9, 20215 min read
Update: Mr. Cooper & New Residential Investment
The big surge in income and net worth caused by the FOMC last year is rapidly ending. Winter has returned to mortgage land...
584 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 30, 20217 min read
Profile: Blend Labs, Inc ("BLND")
Is BLND worth more than RKT, or entrenched data monopolies and solution providers such as BKI or even CLGX?
871 views
Christopher Whalen
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