The Institutional Risk Analyst

Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later

The Basel Accord is one of the single biggest examples of a regulatory agency literally creating a new law from whole cloth.

In the 1950s through maybe into the late 1990s, the FOMC could control mortgage interest rates....

Perhaps Chairman Powell will be kind enough to fall on his sword on way out the door to make things easier for a future Chairman Waller...

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.

The cult of ever falling interest rates goes back 50 years and spans the terms of Fed chairs back to Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker...

As the scale of Fed open market operations grew since 2008, volatility has increased, rendering the adjustment from QE to QT problematic

The real message to the FOMC is this: hike another 75bp in July and then let the Fed funds target sit for a few meetings...

Benevolence, as Chris and I noted in our book "Financial Stability," always gets you more bang for the buck than being miserable.

If you consider QE “stimulus” inflationary, then Fed policy actually accelerated inflation in the November-January period.

The Fed’s chief concern is keeping the Treasury debt market open and functional. Liquidity includes cash and risk-free collateral...