The Institutional Risk Analyst

Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.

Net interest income at USB was down again for the fourth consecutive quarter, confirming a trend across the banking industry

As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses

If Fraser cannot articulate a coherent reason to keep the business together, a breakup may be the most sensible strategy.

Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.

As the public debt of the US grows, after all, the implicit claim of the Treasury on all private US assets also grows.

The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk

Is AFRM maturing from a hot new fintech entrant to a familiar face headed for a bank license?? Yikes.

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed

If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity

Was the breakdown of the normally stable and, indeed, routine workings of the Clearinghouse the result of bad actors?

Regulatory skepticism about mortgage assets could effect financing rates for lenders, which means higher mortgage rates for consumers.

We look for modest rate cuts in 2025, followed by an equally modest boom in mortgage lending

Large universal banks that ply the capital markets and use essentially infinite leverage in the derivatives markets face challenges

Rising interest rates are not good for bank earnings or bank equity valuations.

Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"

GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.

The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations

When you are in a big crowd, nothing else matters.