Bank Industry Review & Survey Q3 2023
The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 7, 20235 min read
Markets Affirm the Unbearable Lightness of Fintech
When you are in a big crowd, nothing else matters.
627 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 5, 20236 min read
Consumer Credit Collapsing? Not Yet...
Sadly for the bears in the audience, nothing would make the banks happier than if consumers would use more credit....
1,091 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 1, 20236 min read
Winter is Coming in Bank Credit
If a bank has 6% debt to assets, what is the equity of the parent BHC worth?
1,160 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 23, 20236 min read
Update: Goldman Sachs + Citigroup; Interest Rates Higher Longer?
We continue to believe that combining Citi and GS may make sense in terms of consolidating two capital markets businesses
634 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 22, 20238 min read
China's Debt Crisis Accelerates
Our view is that China has been caught in a debt deflation for the past five years.
1,395 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 9, 20235 min read
Update: Western Alliance Bancorp
With industry losses on every loan closed well north of 200 bp, you might ask yourself why WAL would still be buying conventional loans.
789 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 4, 20236 min read
RITM Goes Multi Asset; TCBI Shrinks Assets, Grows Returns
TCBI needs to keep efficiency in the 50s if they want to survive the coming drought in mortgage lending.
426 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 2, 20235 min read
Fitch Downgrades US to AA+; Fintech Stocks Soar on Powell Inflation
S&P was the first to call out the growing lack of fiscal discipline in Washington, downgrading Uncle Sam in 2011
704 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 28, 20235 min read
Washington Trip Notes; Mr. Cooper & PennyMac Financial
The last Treasury Secretary that tried to extend the maturities of US government debt was Jack Lew (2013-2017). Yellen missed an opportunity
653 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 24, 20237 min read
Why is JPMorgan So Big? Double Leverage
So when we ask why large banks are so big, the answer is that the Federal Reserve Board allows large BHCs to use more leverage
1,003 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 20, 20235 min read
Update: U.S. Bancorp & Goldman Sachs
We expect to see USB trading at a discount to JPM and Peer Group 1 until the bank improves its operating leverage to pre-COVID levels.
537 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 16, 20236 min read
What Does Washington Federal Say About Bank Earnings?
We all dodged a bullet in Q2 2023 because the repricing of assets and deposits slowed from the crazy levels seen at the end of March.
951 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 15, 20235 min read
Bank Earnings: JPM, WFC & Citi
JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.
500 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 11, 20234 min read
Michael Barr's Capital Proposal Deliberately Misses the Point
The sad fact is that even with another 2% capital, most US banks are arguably insolvent thanks to the Fed “going big.”
1,170 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 8, 20237 min read
Mortgage Lenders Face Return of a Purchase Market
The “winners” in the mortgage sector will be those larger players with equally large servicing books that can access bank funding
903 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 3, 20237 min read
Top Five Banks: JPMorgan Leads the Pack
JPM is really a large mutual fund with a bank attached, as shown in the table below.
822 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 28, 20237 min read
Profile: Comerica Inc.
If the FOMC raises the target rate for fed funds further, then banks like CMA are likely to come under renewed selling pressure.
1,461 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 26, 20238 min read
Update: Mortgage Lenders, TBA Contango & MSRs
We look for lower prices for legacy MBS and MSRs as new allocations are used up and P&Ls sink deeper into the red...
1,104 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 1, 20234 min read
First Take on FDIC Bank Data
If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem
1,057 views
Christopher Whalen
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