The Institutional Risk Analyst

Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates

When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now reports up to National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett.

Kevin Hasset is now effectively Powell’s boss on everything other than monetary policy.

Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling

In the strange world of Washington, speaking truth in public is a capital crime. Truth is often revealed accidentally.

Indeed, if President Trump wants to be rid of Jerome Powell he can simply impeach him for violations of the Federal Reserve Act

It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis. 

The markets got their rate cut over the past six months and now may have to give some of that back.

If President Donald Trump wins in November, he’ll be more than justified in demanding Jerome Powell’s immediate resignation.

As the federal debt rises, bank reserves must rise as well and with it inflation.

In 2019, the FOMC essentially nationalized the US money markets, eliminating private price discovery for a representation of a market.

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.

Perhaps Chairman Powell will be kind enough to fall on his sword on way out the door to make things easier for a future Chairman Waller...

More often than not, Fed Governors use media appearances to enhance their personal celebrity rather than doing their jobs.

This morning, banks are buying funding from the BTFP below 4.85% and selling Fed funds at 5.5%. 

Instead of seeking authority from Congress, Chairman Bernanke and other members of the FOMC merely turned on the public spigot.

As with the Volcker Rule for banks, the move to centralized clearing of Treasuries and T-1 settlement seems destined to reduce liquidity

If the FOMC raises fed funds further, bank failures and perhaps even a market access crisis for the Treasury are next.