R. Christopher WhalenJun 27, 20223 min readBank Liquidity & Quantitative Tightening (QT)A "normal" level for US bank deposits would be closer to $15 trillion than $19.9 trillion today.
R. Christopher WhalenApr 26, 20226 min readDeflation, Not Inflation, is the ThreatXi Jinping in China and Putin in Russia have turned their backs on the global economy to retain power
R. Christopher WhalenApr 20, 20225 min readUkraine & the Return of Credit RiskJust imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
R. Christopher WhalenMar 31, 20225 min readWhy the FOMC Cannot Sell its Mortgage Bonds With MBS prices falling, the FOMC may have to accept the natural runoff rate for the MBS in the SOMA for many years to come
R. Christopher WhalenJan 6, 20225 min readInterest Rates, Stocks & MSRsWe think the chart below from FRED is worth any amount of words on the impact of QE on equity market valuations.
R. Christopher WhalenDec 16, 20216 min readThe End of Money Market FundsThe SEC has finally decided to do the unthinkable, namely repudiate the admittedly fanciful idea of liquidity on demand at par.
R. Christopher WhalenOct 6, 20215 min readPowell Reappointment Still LikelyAmidst the yelling and screaming of Elizabeth Warren, we suspect that Jay Powell will survive the crisis
R. Christopher WhalenSep 13, 20217 min readDebt Ceilings & Interest Rate FloorsWhen Treasury market yields trade and stay negative, look for the Federal Reserve Board to come to the rescue of MM funds and banks.
R. Christopher WhalenJul 6, 20216 min readJay Powell Defends the Lower BoundWe anticipate a shift in deposits out of banks and into the Fed that could further complicate liquidity in Q3 2021.