The Institutional Risk Analyst

When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.

You can tell lies and damn lies about the idea of releasing Fannie and Freddie, but the SEC and FINRA cannot and will not say a word. 

In 2019, the FOMC essentially nationalized the US money markets, eliminating private price discovery for a representation of a market.

The market tantrum which began on Friday was largely over by the market close on the following Tuesday.

Yellen's proposal for a backstop is merely a canard to help Treasury avoid another fiasco next time a Ginnie Mae issuer fails

Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.

If President Trump starts talking about fixing the federal budget deficit and redeveloping moribund urban real estate, he’d win in November

As the public debt of the US grows, after all, the implicit claim of the Treasury on all private US assets also grows.

As with the Volcker Rule for banks, the move to centralized clearing of Treasuries and T-1 settlement seems destined to reduce liquidity

Whether we have Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the White House next Christmas, the US seems to be on a trajectory to a financial crisis...

The last Treasury Secretary that tried to extend the maturities of US government debt was Jack Lew (2013-2017). Yellen missed an opportunity

Until Chairman Powell comes clean with the Congress and the American people, more banks will inevitably fail.

The Treasury and Fed cannot admit fault for fear of bringing the whole house of cards crashing down.

There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.

The cult of ever falling interest rates goes back 50 years and spans the terms of Fed chairs back to Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker...

As the scale of Fed open market operations grew since 2008, volatility has increased, rendering the adjustment from QE to QT problematic

Xi Jinping in China and Putin in Russia have turned their backs on the global economy to retain power

If you consider QE “stimulus” inflationary, then Fed policy actually accelerated inflation in the November-January period.

Amidst the yelling and screaming of Elizabeth Warren, we suspect that Jay Powell will survive the crisis

When Treasury market yields trade and stay negative, look for the Federal Reserve Board to come to the rescue of MM funds and banks.