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R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 710 min read

Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

3,067 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 197 min read

Top-Five Banks: Q1 '24 Earnings Setup

We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...

586 views

Assume Loss Given Default > 100% | PennyMac & Western Alliance Bank

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 410 min read

Assume Loss Given Default > 100% | PennyMac & Western Alliance Bank

Q: What do Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank have in common? Auditor, KPMG.

2,611 views

Interview: Bill Kennedy of RiskBridge Advisors

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 249 min read

Interview: Bill Kennedy of RiskBridge Advisors

Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.

794 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 11, 20236 min read

Is the Fed Insolvent? Does it Matter?

The real question is not whether the FOMC can get inflation down to the 2% target but whether it can keep asset prices rising indefinitely

1,203 views

Jackson Hole and the Volatility of Credit

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 27, 20237 min read

Jackson Hole and the Volatility of Credit

Central bankers cannot quantify any of the key benchmarks of current monetary policy beyond metaphors about stars and clouds

1,467 views

Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 9, 202312 min read

Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury

The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer

4,222 views

Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 16, 20235 min read

Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?

As the FOMC moves short-term rates towards 6%, we expect to take another run at double-digit rates for prime residential mortgage loans.

1,427 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 28, 20226 min read

Is JPMorgan Chase Insolvent?

The US banking industry has been rendered insolvent by the Federal Open Market Committee

8,023 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 24, 20223 min read

AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing

Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets

778 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 24, 20226 min read

Questions for Chairman Powell

QE has created a gigantic interest rate mismatch across markets for banks, non-banks and other financial intermediaries including the GSEs

505 views

Should the FOMC Pause Rate Hikes After July?

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 21, 20225 min read

Should the FOMC Pause Rate Hikes After July?

The real message to the FOMC is this: hike another 75bp in July and then let the Fed funds target sit for a few meetings...

603 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 8, 20228 min read

Chairman Powell's Duration Problem

Chairman Powell’s demeanor during the press conference when he spoke with Mike McKee suggests a man who knows he has a problem.

925 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 4, 20225 min read

Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs

Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.

498 views

Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 11, 20225 min read

Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations

Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?

493 views

QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 15, 20225 min read

QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads

There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when

862 views

Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and Post-QE Deflation

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 21, 20225 min read

Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and Post-QE Deflation

The Powell FOMC has lost all credibility when it comes to financial markets or managing inflation and independence from the US Treasury

788 views

As the Fed Ends QE, Stocks and Crypto Will Retreat

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 15, 20214 min read

As the Fed Ends QE, Stocks and Crypto Will Retreat

And in the meantime, we view the end of QE as a net negative for global stocks as well as crypto. Everything is correlated in a crowd.

1,148 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 25, 20216 min read

Three Questions for Chairman Powell

Look for the FOMC to act early and go big in terms of forward repurchase agreements at the first sign of liquidity stress.

671 views

Q2 2021 Bank Earnings Setup | GS, JPM, FRC | NIM Lower for Longer

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 12, 20213 min read

Q2 2021 Bank Earnings Setup | GS, JPM, FRC | NIM Lower for Longer

Cheap liquidity c/o the FOMC does little for bank earnings when asset returns are also falling

753 views