Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test
Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 197 min read
Top-Five Banks: Q1 '24 Earnings Setup
We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...
586 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 410 min read
Assume Loss Given Default > 100% | PennyMac & Western Alliance Bank
Q: What do Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank have in common? Auditor, KPMG.
2,610 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 249 min read
Interview: Bill Kennedy of RiskBridge Advisors
Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.
789 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 11, 20236 min read
Is the Fed Insolvent? Does it Matter?
The real question is not whether the FOMC can get inflation down to the 2% target but whether it can keep asset prices rising indefinitely
1,200 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 27, 20237 min read
Jackson Hole and the Volatility of Credit
Central bankers cannot quantify any of the key benchmarks of current monetary policy beyond metaphors about stars and clouds
1,467 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 9, 202312 min read
Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
4,218 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 16, 20235 min read
Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?
As the FOMC moves short-term rates towards 6%, we expect to take another run at double-digit rates for prime residential mortgage loans.
1,427 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 28, 20226 min read
Is JPMorgan Chase Insolvent?
The US banking industry has been rendered insolvent by the Federal Open Market Committee
8,016 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 24, 20223 min read
AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing
Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets
778 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 24, 20226 min read
Questions for Chairman Powell
QE has created a gigantic interest rate mismatch across markets for banks, non-banks and other financial intermediaries including the GSEs
505 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 21, 20225 min read
Should the FOMC Pause Rate Hikes After July?
The real message to the FOMC is this: hike another 75bp in July and then let the Fed funds target sit for a few meetings...
603 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 8, 20228 min read
Chairman Powell's Duration Problem
Chairman Powell’s demeanor during the press conference when he spoke with Mike McKee suggests a man who knows he has a problem.
925 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 4, 20225 min read
Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
498 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 11, 20225 min read
Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
493 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 15, 20225 min read
QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads
There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when
862 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 21, 20225 min read
Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and Post-QE Deflation
The Powell FOMC has lost all credibility when it comes to financial markets or managing inflation and independence from the US Treasury
788 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 15, 20214 min read
As the Fed Ends QE, Stocks and Crypto Will Retreat
And in the meantime, we view the end of QE as a net negative for global stocks as well as crypto. Everything is correlated in a crowd.
1,148 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 25, 20216 min read
Three Questions for Chairman Powell
Look for the FOMC to act early and go big in terms of forward repurchase agreements at the first sign of liquidity stress.
671 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 12, 20213 min read
Q2 2021 Bank Earnings Setup | GS, JPM, FRC | NIM Lower for Longer
Cheap liquidity c/o the FOMC does little for bank earnings when asset returns are also falling
743 views
Christopher Whalen
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