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WGA Bank Top 10 Index | Time to Short Financials?

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 99 min read

WGA Bank Top 10 Index | Time to Short Financials?

When SCHW surpassed U.S. Bancorp in size in 2021, you knew that SCHW’s leadership had gotten lost.

458 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 65 min read

Financials: Post-Trump Victory Notes

The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.

1,092 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 18 min read

Fed Duration Trap Threatens Banks, SOMA

It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis.

1,069 views

Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 212 min read

Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF

Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI

720 views

Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 245 min read

Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services

Of note, PFSI has been growing share in wholesale, a direct challenge to UWMC

340 views

Earnings Setup: Consumer Lenders | ALLY AXP AX BCS COF SOFI SYF

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 115 min read

Earnings Setup: Consumer Lenders | ALLY AXP AX BCS COF SOFI SYF

The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change

537 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 710 min read

Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

3,061 views

GSE Release? Really? Update: Ally Financial

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 1110 min read

GSE Release? Really? Update: Ally Financial

You take the GSEs out of conservatorship, the big banks led by JPMorgan and U.S. Bancorp will own the conventional loan market

1,986 views

WGA Releases Top 50 Bank Index | What's in Your ETF?

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 255 min read

WGA Releases Top 50 Bank Index | What's in Your ETF?

Not all banks or companies are the same and not all follow the herd.

1,134 views

Does CapitalOne + Discover Financial = Shareholder Value?

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 214 min read

Does CapitalOne + Discover Financial = Shareholder Value?

Elizabeth Warren and progressives in Congress should support COF's purchase of Discover as a way to compete with monopoly JPMorgan

489 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 306 min read

Good, Bad & Ugly: AXP, SOFI & BAC

AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.

855 views

EVs Wane, Fintech Sputters & COF Dumps Commercial Mortgages

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 298 min read

EVs Wane, Fintech Sputters & COF Dumps Commercial Mortgages

Now let’s take a look at how some members of the banking and fintech sector are doing in the first month of 2024.

806 views

Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 21, 20237 min read

Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

613 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 8, 20234 min read

Stocks, Interest Rates and Reverse RPs

Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed

707 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 14, 20235 min read

Update: Banks & Fintechs

With inflation fears moderating, look for Buy Side managers to buy bank stocks – even if earnings remain constrained...

784 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 9, 20236 min read

Profile: Synchrony Financial

What can SYF tell us about the bleeding edge of unsecured consumer credit?

667 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 4, 20234 min read

Banks, Interest Rates & Fed Chairs

Imagine how President Joe Biden will react if Chair Powell needs to announce formal limits on access to US bank deposits.

2,416 views

Update: Truist, Charles Schwab, U.S. Bancorp & PNC Financial

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 4, 20237 min read

Update: Truist, Charles Schwab, U.S. Bancorp & PNC Financial

The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap

770 views

Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 20, 20225 min read

Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup

Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.

568 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 13, 20224 min read

Update: Ally Financial (ALLY)

The 5-year CDS spreads for ALLY were trading 280bp over the swaps curve compared with 120bp for Citigroup (C) & 150bp for CapitalOne

477 views