The Institutional Risk Analyst

Many voices in the media and elsewhere have been predicting an economic slump since 2023. Didn’t happen, but 2025 is very different.

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.

When SCHW surpassed U.S. Bancorp in size in 2021, you knew that SCHW’s leadership had gotten lost. 

The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.

It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis. 

Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI

Of note, PFSI has been growing share in wholesale, a direct challenge to UWMC

The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

You take the GSEs out of conservatorship, the big banks led by JPMorgan and U.S. Bancorp will own the conventional loan market

Not all banks or companies are the same and not all follow the herd.

Elizabeth Warren and progressives in Congress should support COF's purchase of Discover as a way to compete with monopoly JPMorgan

AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.

Now let’s take a look at how some members of the banking and fintech sector are doing in the first month of 2024.

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed

With inflation fears moderating, look for Buy Side managers to buy bank stocks – even if earnings remain constrained...

What can SYF tell us about the bleeding edge of unsecured consumer credit?

Imagine how President Joe Biden will react if Chair Powell needs to announce formal limits on access to US bank deposits.