SoftBank as Systemic Event; Update: Charles Schwab & Co
The public behavior and decision-making processes of SoftBank suggest that the organization is in trouble.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 11, 20233 min read
Bank Industry Review & Survey Q3 2023
The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations
865 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 1, 20236 min read
Winter is Coming in Bank Credit
If a bank has 6% debt to assets, what is the equity of the parent BHC worth?
1,160 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 23, 20236 min read
Update: Goldman Sachs + Citigroup; Interest Rates Higher Longer?
We continue to believe that combining Citi and GS may make sense in terms of consolidating two capital markets businesses
634 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 15, 20235 min read
Bank Earnings: JPM, WFC & Citi
JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.
500 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 3, 20237 min read
Top Five Banks: JPMorgan Leads the Pack
JPM is really a large mutual fund with a bank attached, as shown in the table below.
822 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 23, 20237 min read
PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks
To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate
2,431 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 17, 20234 min read
Funding & Credit: Q1 2023 Bank Earnings Takeaways
The issue is not whether your bank is getting smaller, but whether credit expenses are being managed as funding costs inevitably rise.
1,129 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 12, 20238 min read
Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
1,032 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 9, 202312 min read
Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
4,218 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 23, 20237 min read
The Return of Credit Risk
Fact is, Dr. Brainard has primary culpability in the growing economic pain being felt around the country.
2,384 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 30, 20237 min read
Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.
990 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 23, 20236 min read
Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
536 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 4, 20237 min read
Update: Truist, Charles Schwab, U.S. Bancorp & PNC Financial
The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap
769 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 20, 20225 min read
Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup
Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.
567 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 12, 20227 min read
Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
700 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 2, 202210 min read
Large Banks: QT Winners & Losers
A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.
808 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 8, 20225 min read
Update: The Bull Case for US Financials
Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...
526 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 15, 20229 min read
Universal Banks | Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Raymond James & Stifel
Total noncore funding at GS was over $700 billion at the end of Q1 2022 vs $321 billion for MS.
543 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 13, 20224 min read
Update: Ally Financial (ALLY)
The 5-year CDS spreads for ALLY were trading 280bp over the swaps curve compared with 120bp for Citigroup (C) & 150bp for CapitalOne
476 views
Christopher Whalen
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