Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility
Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 8, 20235 min read
Update: Bank of America
If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity
1,099 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 6, 20234 min read
ACH: The Bank Deposit Ain't in the Mail
Was the breakdown of the normally stable and, indeed, routine workings of the Clearinghouse the result of bad actors?
1,192 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 24, 20235 min read
QE Means Higher for Longer, But No Recession
We look for modest rate cuts in 2025, followed by an equally modest boom in mortgage lending
1,027 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 1, 20236 min read
Winter is Coming in Bank Credit
If a bank has 6% debt to assets, what is the equity of the parent BHC worth?
1,160 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 4, 20236 min read
RITM Goes Multi Asset; TCBI Shrinks Assets, Grows Returns
TCBI needs to keep efficiency in the 50s if they want to survive the coming drought in mortgage lending.
426 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 15, 20235 min read
Bank Earnings: JPM, WFC & Citi
JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.
500 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 3, 20237 min read
Top Five Banks: JPMorgan Leads the Pack
JPM is really a large mutual fund with a bank attached, as shown in the table below.
822 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 14, 20235 min read
Update: Banks & Fintechs
With inflation fears moderating, look for Buy Side managers to buy bank stocks – even if earnings remain constrained...
784 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 1, 20234 min read
First Take on FDIC Bank Data
If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem
1,057 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 29, 20237 min read
Calculate the WAC of Bank of America
If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....
2,777 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 19, 20237 min read
The Bank Deposit Run Is Not Over
The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.
4,569 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 12, 20238 min read
Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
1,032 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 9, 202312 min read
Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
4,218 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 17, 20238 min read
Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings
We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio
2,718 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 30, 20237 min read
Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.
990 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 23, 20236 min read
Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
536 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 24, 20223 min read
AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing
Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets
778 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 12, 20227 min read
Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
699 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 2, 202210 min read
Large Banks: QT Winners & Losers
A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.
808 views
Christopher Whalen
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