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R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 115 min read

Bank Earnings Setup Q4 2023

Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.

619 views

Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 21, 20237 min read

Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

612 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 8, 20235 min read

Update: Bank of America

If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity

1,099 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 6, 20234 min read

ACH: The Bank Deposit Ain't in the Mail

Was the breakdown of the normally stable and, indeed, routine workings of the Clearinghouse the result of bad actors?

1,193 views

QE Means Higher for Longer, But No Recession

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 24, 20235 min read

QE Means Higher for Longer, But No Recession

We look for modest rate cuts in 2025, followed by an equally modest boom in mortgage lending

1,027 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 1, 20236 min read

Winter is Coming in Bank Credit

If a bank has 6% debt to assets, what is the equity of the parent BHC worth?

1,160 views

RITM Goes Multi Asset; TCBI Shrinks Assets, Grows Returns

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 4, 20236 min read

RITM Goes Multi Asset; TCBI Shrinks Assets, Grows Returns

TCBI needs to keep efficiency in the 50s if they want to survive the coming drought in mortgage lending.

426 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 15, 20235 min read

Bank Earnings: JPM, WFC & Citi

JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.

500 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 3, 20237 min read

Top Five Banks: JPMorgan Leads the Pack

JPM is really a large mutual fund with a bank attached, as shown in the table below.

822 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 14, 20235 min read

Update: Banks & Fintechs

With inflation fears moderating, look for Buy Side managers to buy bank stocks – even if earnings remain constrained...

784 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 1, 20234 min read

First Take on FDIC Bank Data

If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem

1,057 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 29, 20237 min read

Calculate the WAC of Bank of America

If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....

2,777 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 19, 20237 min read

The Bank Deposit Run Is Not Over

The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.

4,569 views

Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 12, 20238 min read

Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC

Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates

1,032 views

Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 9, 202312 min read

Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury

The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer

4,222 views

Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 17, 20238 min read

Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings

We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio

2,718 views

Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 30, 20237 min read

Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial

Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.

992 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 23, 20236 min read

Update: Bank of America

We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks

536 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 24, 20223 min read

AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing

Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets

778 views

Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 12, 20227 min read

Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup

How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?

700 views