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Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.

R. Christopher Whalen

3 days ago7 min read

Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.

Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

314 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 115 min read

Q: Is JPMorgan Overinflated?

The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"

1,360 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 18 min read

Fed Duration Trap Threatens Banks, SOMA

It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis.

1,068 views

Update: Citigroup, Bank America and Goldman Sachs

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 187 min read

Update: Citigroup, Bank America and Goldman Sachs

How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?

453 views

Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 212 min read

Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF

Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI

720 views

The Top Seven Banks: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC & TFC

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 189 min read

The Top Seven Banks: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC & TFC

Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.

691 views

Update: Pinnacle Financial & Synthetic Credit Risk Transfer

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 186 min read

Update: Pinnacle Financial & Synthetic Credit Risk Transfer

We hear in the channel that banks with festering multifamily exposures are paying north of 10% for similar CRT transactions.

794 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 175 min read

Bank Earnings: JPM, BAC, AX, GS & SCHW

GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...

478 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 710 min read

Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

3,054 views

USSC Kills Chevron | Zombie Banks Pass Stress Tests?

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 18 min read

USSC Kills Chevron | Zombie Banks Pass Stress Tests?

The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.

904 views

Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 239 min read

Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC

Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.

1,431 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 176 min read

Update: BMO + Bank of the West = ?

BMO arguably has the weakest reserve position among the large Canadian banks....

984 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 293 min read

WGA Bank Top 100 Index | Q2 2024

Our Bank Top 10 and Top 25 indices continue to outperform the industry benchmarks, but the broader samples show growing financial stress

579 views

The Death of Leverage; What's the WAC of Bank America?

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 247 min read

The Death of Leverage; What's the WAC of Bank America?

The yield on BAC's $320 billion commercial and industrial (C&I) book was just 5.4% or more than 150bp below peer at year-end 2023.

935 views

Update: Bank of America & Charles Schwab

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 176 min read

Update: Bank of America & Charles Schwab

BAC is in big trouble, not due to credit but because of sub-par asset returns. BAC’s return on assets has fallen to just 0.8% in Q1 2024

641 views

Small Banks Have Big CRE Risk? Really? | Bank of America Update

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 257 min read

Small Banks Have Big CRE Risk? Really? | Bank of America Update

The net losses disclosed by BAC and the other large banks at the end of Q4 2023 are significantly understated...

1,610 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 197 min read

Top-Five Banks: Q1 '24 Earnings Setup

We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...

586 views

WGA Releases Top 50 Bank Index | What's in Your ETF?

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 255 min read

WGA Releases Top 50 Bank Index | What's in Your ETF?

Not all banks or companies are the same and not all follow the herd.

1,134 views

Fear & Loathing in Credit; Update: PayPal Holdings

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 87 min read

Fear & Loathing in Credit; Update: PayPal Holdings

We think that the whole banking industry could be driven into multiple periods of loss as they divert income to loss provisions.

914 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 306 min read

Good, Bad & Ugly: AXP, SOFI & BAC

AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.

855 views