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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2024 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 29, 20236 min read
Update: Flying Fintechs & Zombie Banks
COIN has been helped by a groundswell of positive comment about crypto in 2023...
660 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 27, 20236 min read
The Moral Hazard of Jerome Powell
Instead of seeking authority from Congress, Chairman Bernanke and other members of the FOMC merely turned on the public spigot.
1,733 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 20, 20236 min read
Yield Curve Normalization Good for Banks?
We think that doing nothing is a fool’s trade, to be blunt, because the next Treasury refunding could pull market yields sharply higher.
1,042 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 17, 20236 min read
Recessions Signs in Texas & China
The mood in the Dallas mortgage community is subdued, much like the atmosphere after an especially good party.
535 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 14, 20233 min read
Housing Finance Outlook Q4 2023
Baring some emergency, the Fed seems on track to keep interest rates at current levels indefintely.
560 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 13, 20238 min read
Big What? Rising Debt Service & Falling Liquidity
As with the Volcker Rule for banks, the move to centralized clearing of Treasuries and T-1 settlement seems destined to reduce liquidity
859 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 8, 20235 min read
Update: Bank of America
If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity
1,099 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 6, 20234 min read
ACH: The Bank Deposit Ain't in the Mail
Was the breakdown of the normally stable and, indeed, routine workings of the Clearinghouse the result of bad actors?
1,193 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 1, 20236 min read
Update: PennyMac Financial Services
If we are marking balance sheet assets to actual market in the age of deflation, what of the heavily modeled world of servicing assets?
510 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 30, 20234 min read
Rate Peak Emerges, Deflation Looms
One of the effects of QE has been making many banks and real estate investors insolvent, a precursor to debt defaults.
1,507 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 26, 20239 min read
Interest Rates, Fintech & MSRs
Regulatory skepticism about mortgage assets could effect financing rates for lenders, which means higher mortgage rates for consumers.
528 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 24, 20235 min read
QE Means Higher for Longer, But No Recession
We look for modest rate cuts in 2025, followed by an equally modest boom in mortgage lending
1,027 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 19, 20236 min read
Are Bank Stocks Undervalued? Which Ones & Why
Large universal banks that ply the capital markets and use essentially infinite leverage in the derivatives markets face challenges
1,030 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 17, 20234 min read
Charles Schwab Unwinds the QE Trade
Rising interest rates are not good for bank earnings or bank equity valuations.
1,578 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 15, 20237 min read
Bank Earnings Takeaways -- JPM, WFC and Citi
Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"
728 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 11, 20236 min read
Jerome Powell's Silent Crisis
The Powell Fed needs to drop short-term interest rates back down to 4% and leave them there indefinitely.
1,477 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 9, 20237 min read
Texas Capital Bank v Ginnie Mae
The legal dispute between Ginnie Mae and Texas Capital Bank makes additional defaults by HECM lenders more likely...
1,039 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 3, 20236 min read
Top Five Bank Earnings Setup | Q3 2023
Did we mention margin calls on Treasury and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and rising mark-to-market losses on securities...
1,637 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 2, 20236 min read
Credit Suisse\UBS to Apollo: Bye, Bye
UBS ultimately seems intent upon running off the remaining US mortgage assets, including a few billion in Ginnie Mae MSR financings
845 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 27, 20239 min read
SoftBank as Systemic Event; Update: Charles Schwab & Co
The public behavior and decision-making processes of SoftBank suggest that the organization is in trouble.
1,281 views
Christopher Whalen
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