The Institutional Risk Analyst

How much in synthetic CRT transactions will be done in 2024? Our best guess is many hundreds of billions globally...

Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.

We remind readers that unrealized losses on securities are still a bigger problem for banks than CRE.

Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.

The unrealized losses on COVID era securities remain a huge problem for banks large and small, especially if long-term interest rates rise

Obviously, there should be no interest rate cuts by the FOMC without deficit reduction by Congress.

With a budget deficit projected to be $1.8 trillion in 2024, the odds of the FOMC actually controlling inflation are pretty low. 

We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025. 

When NYC is forced to recognize reality, it will already be too late to avoid another fiscal crisis.

Citi is a subprime lender. They should be directly involved in government lending.

Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?

Are there bank bargains down in the cellar waiting to be discovered?

We think Whitney’s comments about a surge in new lending from Freddie Mac buying home equity loans are poorly considered

The survivors in mortgage finance optimize operations around purchasing loans from brokers/ correspondents, and direct to consumer (DTC)

If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC

When will Disney decide to sell some or all of its streaming operations to keep the lights on at its theme parks?

Our Bank Top 10 and Top 25 indices continue to outperform the industry benchmarks, but the broader samples show growing financial stress

The yield on BAC's $320 billion commercial and industrial (C&I) book was just 5.4% or more than 150bp below peer at year-end 2023.

McCargo's actions and the fact that the case has not been dismissed in its entirety is very unhelpful given current market conditions.

BAC is in big trouble, not due to credit but because of sub-par asset returns. BAC’s return on assets has fallen to just 0.8% in Q1 2024