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Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 23, 20249 min read

Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC

Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.

1,434 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 17, 20246 min read

Update: BMO + Bank of the West = ?

BMO arguably has the weakest reserve position among the large Canadian banks....

986 views

Interview: Brian Barnier on the Fed and Inflation in Never Never Land

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 17, 20245 min read

Interview: Brian Barnier on the Fed and Inflation in Never Never Land

In the 1950s through maybe into the late 1990s, the FOMC could control mortgage interest rates....

548 views

Will Credit Risk Transfer Save the Banks? Are MSRs Overvalued?

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 12, 20249 min read

Will Credit Risk Transfer Save the Banks? Are MSRs Overvalued?

How much in synthetic CRT transactions will be done in 2024? Our best guess is many hundreds of billions globally...

760 views

Interview: Robert Brusca on the Federal Open Market Committee

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 10, 20249 min read

Interview: Robert Brusca on the Federal Open Market Committee

Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.

686 views

Faux Bear Raids on OZK and AX? But More Trouble Ahead for CRE Equity

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 7, 20246 min read

Faux Bear Raids on OZK and AX? But More Trouble Ahead for CRE Equity

We remind readers that unrealized losses on securities are still a bigger problem for banks than CRE.

627 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 4, 20246 min read

Inside the Private Credit Trade

Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.

1,219 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 2, 20242 min read

WGA Releases Bank Quarterly Q2 2024

The unrealized losses on COVID era securities remain a huge problem for banks large and small, especially if long-term interest rates rise

792 views

At the Federal Reserve Board, It's 1927 All Over Again

R. Christopher Whalen

May 30, 20247 min read

At the Federal Reserve Board, It's 1927 All Over Again

Obviously, there should be no interest rate cuts by the FOMC without deficit reduction by Congress.

1,098 views

Inflation & CRE Deflation Too? UMB Financial + Heartland = ?

R. Christopher Whalen

May 28, 20247 min read

Inflation & CRE Deflation Too? UMB Financial + Heartland = ?

With a budget deficit projected to be $1.8 trillion in 2024, the odds of the FOMC actually controlling inflation are pretty low.

767 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 24, 20246 min read

Interest Rates, Deficits & Inflation

We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025.

817 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 22, 20247 min read

MBA Aftermath; Profile: Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)

When NYC is forced to recognize reality, it will already be too late to avoid another fiscal crisis.

642 views

Joe Biden Goes Subprime; Should Citi Buy NYCB/Flagstar?

R. Christopher Whalen

May 20, 20246 min read

Joe Biden Goes Subprime; Should Citi Buy NYCB/Flagstar?

Citi is a subprime lender. They should be directly involved in government lending.

983 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 15, 20247 min read

The Bull Case for Large Banks

Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?

563 views

Yellen FSOC Punts on Mortgage Servicers; WGA Bottom 25 Banks

R. Christopher Whalen

May 13, 20247 min read

Yellen FSOC Punts on Mortgage Servicers; WGA Bottom 25 Banks

Are there bank bargains down in the cellar waiting to be discovered?

907 views

Freddie Mac Buying HELOCs? Really Meredith? | UWMC & Disappearing MSRs

R. Christopher Whalen

May 10, 202410 min read

Freddie Mac Buying HELOCs? Really Meredith? | UWMC & Disappearing MSRs

We think Whitney’s comments about a surge in new lending from Freddie Mac buying home equity loans are poorly considered

3,618 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 8, 20246 min read

Portfolio Update & Mortgage Survivors

The survivors in mortgage finance optimize operations around purchasing loans from brokers/ correspondents, and direct to consumer (DTC)

475 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 5, 20249 min read

Debt Deflation in CRE? PFSI, COOP & RKT

If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC

686 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 1, 20245 min read

Then Old Media Became Redunzl

When will Disney decide to sell some or all of its streaming operations to keep the lights on at its theme parks?

538 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 29, 20243 min read

WGA Bank Top 100 Index | Q2 2024

Our Bank Top 10 and Top 25 indices continue to outperform the industry benchmarks, but the broader samples show growing financial stress

579 views