The Institutional Risk Analyst

When President Donald Trump says that interest rates are too high, he may not fully understand just how right he is about the cost of credit

In the strange world of Washington, speaking truth in public is a capital crime. Truth is often revealed accidentally.

The SVB duration management from 2020 onward was recklessly negligent by any reasonable standard

The majority of the actual cash profit generated from residential lending is found in the mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).

Without profits from commissions and capital markets, BAC would have reported a down quarter due to higher funding and operating expenses.

Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.

With Gov Michael Barr stepping down from bank supervision, perhaps Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is more willing to test liquidity lower bound

Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.

Cute reference to "average cost," but total return to date would be of greater interest.

As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.

Indeed, if President Trump wants to be rid of Jerome Powell he can simply impeach him for violations of the Federal Reserve Act

What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.

Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

WGA notes that bank stock prices have soared in the second half of 2024, with the WGA Bank Top 10 Index up 40% year-to-date in 2024.

Selling the Treasury's control position in the GSEs while dragging the furious shareholders along behind is not an attractive opportunity

Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.

When SCHW surpassed U.S. Bancorp in size in 2021, you knew that SCHW’s leadership had gotten lost. 

BLND is generating operating leverage via cost reductions, another way of saying that management is slowly winding up the business.

What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?

Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later