The Institutional Risk Analyst

We suspect that the IMBs will be sellers of conventional assets to defend their Ginnie Mae MSRs. Banks may be buyers of conventional assets

In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we speak to Mike Patterson, COO of Freedom Mortgage.

But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...

The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap

The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.

Bankruptcy of Reverse Mortgage Funding may be first step in a systemic crisis affecting the government loan market

Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?

There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.

It seems obvious that the reported book value metrics coming from many commercial banks, REITs and mortgage banks are a tad inflated...

Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023

The big news this week starts with the poor showing by Rocket Companies (RKT), reporting a loss for Q3 2022 and a big decline in volumes.

Like COOP, volumes are down dramatically from 2021 but MSR values and cash flows from servicing are rising

Despite the outlook for the industry, COOP continues to be one of the better performing names in our mortgage surveillance group.

Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets

Will the market risk created by quantitative tightening (QT) tip over a large bank or nonbank financial firm?

A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.

The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent

The entire mortgage industry will have a single point of failure with the ICE/BKI combination

If the merger of Black Knight and Intercontinental Exchange goes through, the expanded ICE monopoly will simply give POS tools away for free

The banks have left the government market. Now Ginnie Mae seems bound and determined to drive the IMBs out of government lending as well