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Why the FOMC Cannot Sell its Mortgage Bonds

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 31, 20225 min read

Why the FOMC Cannot Sell its Mortgage Bonds

With MBS prices falling, the FOMC may have to accept the natural runoff rate for the MBS in the SOMA for many years to come

3,519 views

QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 15, 20225 min read

QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads

There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when

862 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 12, 20224 min read

Update: Guild Mortgage

In our view, Guild Mortgage is one of the highest quality businesses in the residential mortgage space.

299 views

The IRA Bank Book Q1 2022 | Credit Risk Returns

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 7, 202211 min read

The IRA Bank Book Q1 2022 | Credit Risk Returns

We add a new dimension of risk to the normalization of US bank earnings with the Russian war against Ukraine.

562 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 25, 20227 min read

Update: HMPT, RKT, NRZ & UPST

UPST has seen its valuation cut by 60% since March of last year, when its common equity traded at a mere 31x book value.

313 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 10, 20226 min read

Profile: NexBank Capital, Inc.

Among the ten largest mortgage specialization banks, NexBank had among the best equity returns in Q3 2021

388 views

News: Improving Liquidity for Ginnie Mae Servicing Assets

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 9, 20222 min read

News: Improving Liquidity for Ginnie Mae Servicing Assets

Collateralized lending in the US was essentially impossible outside of banks from 1925 through the mid-1970s...

301 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 6, 20225 min read

Interest Rates, Stocks & MSRs

We think the chart below from FRED is worth any amount of words on the impact of QE on equity market valuations.

541 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 13, 202111 min read

A Bull Case for US Banks?

We ask whether bank fundamentals are starting to catch up to the very full equity market valuations , up 40% since the end of 2020

515 views

Update: Rocket Companies, PennyMac Financial Services & Home Point

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 8, 20216 min read

Update: Rocket Companies, PennyMac Financial Services & Home Point

When issuers like RKT and PFSI are paying up for servicing assets, you know that the secondary loan market is getting tougher by the day.

365 views

Update: New Residential Investment, Fortress & Softbank

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 3, 20217 min read

Update: New Residential Investment, Fortress & Softbank

The good news is that NRZ is growing and making strides in terms of asset creation and, especially, asset retention.

881 views

Cenlar FSB, COOP, BLND and the Great MSR Migration

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 28, 20214 min read

Cenlar FSB, COOP, BLND and the Great MSR Migration

Risk to investors in the market for residential mortgages is rising and from multiple sources

454 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 25, 20216 min read

Three Questions for Chairman Powell

Look for the FOMC to act early and go big in terms of forward repurchase agreements at the first sign of liquidity stress.

671 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 22, 20215 min read

Profile: Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL)

WAL is one the best performing small banks in the US based upon equity market valuations, profits and growth rates

285 views

Interview: Stan Middleman on the Outlook for Housing and the Economy

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 17, 20218 min read

Interview: Stan Middleman on the Outlook for Housing and the Economy

This week we speak with Stan Middleman, founder and CEO of Freedom Mortgage, about the US economy and the outlook for residential mortgages

1,062 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 20, 202111 min read

The IRA Bank Book | Q3 2021

In the Q3 2021 edition of The IRA Bank Book, we document the slow destruction of US bank asset and equity returns by the FOMC.

365 views

Is there Racial Bias in GSE Lending? Ask President Barack Obama

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 30, 20215 min read

Is there Racial Bias in GSE Lending? Ask President Barack Obama

Progressives in and outside of the media are on a mission, to find a problem to solve – even if none actually exists...

463 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 23, 20217 min read

Interview: Lee Smith, Flagstar Bank

We expect to see a lot more M&A activity over the next 12 – 18 months, as that’s the only way for some players to grow share.

824 views

Update: Rocket Companies and United Wholesale Mortgage

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 16, 20215 min read

Update: Rocket Companies and United Wholesale Mortgage

Growing numbers of investors are burned by mortgage stocks. Big question: Will the industry snap back due to now falling interest rates?

403 views

Update: Mr. Cooper & New Residential Investment

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 9, 20215 min read

Update: Mr. Cooper & New Residential Investment

The big surge in income and net worth caused by the FOMC last year is rapidly ending. Winter has returned to mortgage land...

585 views