The Institutional Risk Analyst

If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....

Persistent talk about a 5.5% 30-year mortgage rate later this year is badly wrong as TBAs flip from 5.5% to 6% coupons for delivery in June

We think that further Fed tightening, plus sales of MBS from FDIC and banks generally, may force mortgage rates higher into the 7% range

The price volatility injected into markets by the Fed is a primary reason why the FDIC cannot easily find buyers for smaller banks.

When interest rates eventually fall those late vintage mortgage loans with 6% coupons will evaporate like spring snow in the sunshine

Both PFSI and COOP are navigating the current market well, but we have questions about where the former is headed.

We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.

By any reasonable standard, Janet Yellen should have already resigned, but not in the strange world of Washington.

Are nonbank mortgage firms a risk to Ginnie Mae? Or is it really the other way around?

GS is a securities dealer first and foremost and has no comparative advantage as a bank.

Fact is, Dr. Brainard has primary culpability in the growing economic pain being felt around the country.

Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions

We suspect that the IMBs will be sellers of conventional assets to defend their Ginnie Mae MSRs. Banks may be buyers of conventional assets

The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace

In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we speak to Mike Patterson, COO of Freedom Mortgage.

But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...

The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.

Bankruptcy of Reverse Mortgage Funding may be first step in a systemic crisis affecting the government loan market

Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?

It seems obvious that the reported book value metrics coming from many commercial banks, REITs and mortgage banks are a tad inflated...