The Institutional Risk Analyst

The net losses disclosed by BAC and the other large banks at the end of Q4 2023 are significantly understated...

Despite what Joe Biden says about helping Americans with the soaring cost of housing, he really protects Black Rock (BK), Pimco et al

Industry leaders believe that the FHFA wants the GSEs to offer issuers "repurchase insurance" to the tune of 25bps per loan.

If President Trump starts talking about fixing the federal budget deficit and redeveloping moribund urban real estate, he’d win in November

While there are a great number of people inside the Fed who ponder the appropriate level of reserves in the system, they don't really know

The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk

The mood in the Dallas mortgage community is subdued, much like the atmosphere after an especially good party.

Baring some emergency, the Fed seems on track to keep interest rates at current levels indefintely.

If we are marking balance sheet assets to actual market in the age of deflation, what of the heavily modeled world of servicing assets?

Regulatory skepticism about mortgage assets could effect financing rates for lenders, which means higher mortgage rates for consumers.

Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"

The legal dispute between Ginnie Mae and Texas Capital Bank makes additional defaults by HECM lenders more likely...

UBS ultimately seems intent upon running off the remaining US mortgage assets, including a few billion in Ginnie Mae MSR financings

The Q2 2023 disclosure for PACW suggests an institution that is bleeding cash and operating in extremis...

TCBI needs to keep efficiency in the 50s if they want to survive the coming drought in mortgage lending.

The last Treasury Secretary that tried to extend the maturities of US government debt was Jack Lew (2013-2017). Yellen missed an opportunity

We expect to see USB trading at a discount to JPM and Peer Group 1 until the bank improves its operating leverage to pre-COVID levels.

JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.

The “winners” in the mortgage sector will be those larger players with equally large servicing books that can access bank funding

We look for lower prices for legacy MBS and MSRs as new allocations are used up and P&Ls sink deeper into the red...