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R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 23, 20237 min read

The Return of Credit Risk

Fact is, Dr. Brainard has primary culpability in the growing economic pain being felt around the country.

2,384 views

Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 16, 20235 min read

Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?

As the FOMC moves short-term rates towards 6%, we expect to take another run at double-digit rates for prime residential mortgage loans.

1,427 views

Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 3, 20239 min read

Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs

The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace

843 views

Silvergate, Reverse RPs and the “Theology of Prosperity”

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 25, 20238 min read

Silvergate, Reverse RPs and the “Theology of Prosperity”

Crypto, of course, is not an asset as much as a bad idea that was given life by Quantitative Easing

873 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 23, 20236 min read

Update: Bank of America

We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks

536 views

Goldman Drops Restatement; Jamie Dimon Drops the Ball on "Frank"

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 16, 20237 min read

Goldman Drops Restatement; Jamie Dimon Drops the Ball on "Frank"

The Fed’s de facto embrace of inflation encourages misallocation of economic resources on a grand scale....

750 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 13, 20236 min read

Update: JPMorganChase & Wells Fargo

But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...

498 views

GNMA, FNMA Seize Assets from Reverse Mortgage Funding Estate

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 22, 20226 min read

GNMA, FNMA Seize Assets from Reverse Mortgage Funding Estate

The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.

1,409 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 16, 20226 min read

The Year That Was: 2022

Many in the Buy Side chorus are looking forward to lower interest rates, but we are concerned that next year could really be about solvency

627 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 12, 20224 min read

Rising Interest Rates? Really?

Since 2008, dollar swap spreads have traded below Treasury yields, suggesting a persistent demand for dollars coming from offshore.

824 views

Bank M2M Losses Surge in Q3 to $347 Billion

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 6, 20221 min read

Bank M2M Losses Surge in Q3 to $347 Billion

Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion

519 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 28, 20226 min read

Is JPMorgan Chase Insolvent?

The US banking industry has been rendered insolvent by the Federal Open Market Committee

8,029 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 25, 20229 min read

Crypto Crash Signal End of Fintech?

Despite all the hyperbole, the great crypto fraud was a small game, like the party poker that many crypto enthusiasts share in common

358 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 17, 20227 min read

Extension Risk Threatens US Banks

There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.

1,214 views

Update: Crypto Fraud Crumbles as Bank Stocks Surge

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 10, 20225 min read

Update: Crypto Fraud Crumbles as Bank Stocks Surge

Crypto has gone from a sort-of juiced up equity strategy to a distressed credit story in just hours.

442 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 7, 20227 min read

Brief: The Return of Home Equity Loans

Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023

1,339 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 2, 20226 min read

Terminal Rates & Conflicted Economists

The cult of ever falling interest rates goes back 50 years and spans the terms of Fed chairs back to Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker...

701 views

Update: Credit Suisse (CS) & PennyMac Financial (PFSI)

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 28, 20227 min read

Update: Credit Suisse (CS) & PennyMac Financial (PFSI)

Like COOP, volumes are down dramatically from 2021 but MSR values and cash flows from servicing are rising

958 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 26, 20224 min read

Update: Mr. Cooper (COOP)

Despite the outlook for the industry, COOP continues to be one of the better performing names in our mortgage surveillance group.

297 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 24, 20223 min read

AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing

Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets

778 views