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R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 12, 20235 min read

Bank Deposits vs US Treasury Bills

Remember, for every $1 in debt redeemed on the books of the Fed, a bank deposit disappears.

1,910 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 29, 20237 min read

Calculate the WAC of Bank of America

If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....

2,777 views

Interest Rates, MSRs, Mortgage Putbacks & FICO Scores

R. Christopher Whalen

May 25, 20238 min read

Interest Rates, MSRs, Mortgage Putbacks & FICO Scores

Persistent talk about a 5.5% 30-year mortgage rate later this year is badly wrong as TBAs flip from 5.5% to 6% coupons for delivery in June

1,123 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 23, 20237 min read

PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks

To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate

2,432 views

Mortgage Rates Headed for 7% as Residential Defaults Slowly Rise

R. Christopher Whalen

May 21, 20232 min read

Mortgage Rates Headed for 7% as Residential Defaults Slowly Rise

We think that further Fed tightening, plus sales of MBS from FDIC and banks generally, may force mortgage rates higher into the 7% range

989 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 15, 20236 min read

Fed Asymmetry Threatens Credit Crisis

The price volatility injected into markets by the Fed is a primary reason why the FDIC cannot easily find buyers for smaller banks.

3,858 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 7, 20236 min read

Measuring Powell's Bank Rate Shock

Q: What happens to net-interest margin for banks when the rate of change in funding costs doubles or more in a single quarter?

3,508 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 4, 20234 min read

Banks, Interest Rates & Fed Chairs

Imagine how President Joe Biden will react if Chair Powell needs to announce formal limits on access to US bank deposits.

2,416 views

The False Narrative on First Republic Bank

R. Christopher Whalen

May 1, 20236 min read

The False Narrative on First Republic Bank

Until Chairman Powell comes clean with the Congress and the American people, more banks will inevitably fail.

5,205 views

Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 12, 20238 min read

Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC

Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates

1,032 views

Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 9, 202312 min read

Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury

The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer

4,225 views

Update: Charles Schwab (SCHW); Sagent Presentation

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 3, 20236 min read

Update: Charles Schwab (SCHW); Sagent Presentation

Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023

4,364 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 30, 20236 min read

QT, Interest Rates & Bank Solvency

At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.

2,254 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 26, 202310 min read

Update: New York Community Bank

We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.

1,155 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 23, 20236 min read

FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.

2,927 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 21, 20235 min read

Winners & Losers in the New Gilded Age

Mark Twain called Washington ''the grand old benevolent National Asylum for the Helpless'' in his classic "The Gilded Age."

1,766 views

Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 17, 20238 min read

Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings

We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio

2,718 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 14, 20238 min read

QE & the Yellen Banking Crisis

By any reasonable standard, Janet Yellen should have already resigned, but not in the strange world of Washington.

3,157 views

Who Killed Silicon Valley Bank?; The IRA Bank Book Q1 2023

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 11, 20236 min read

Who Killed Silicon Valley Bank?; The IRA Bank Book Q1 2023

Last week not a single member of the Big Media managed to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the state of the US banking system

8,997 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 27, 20236 min read

QT & Powell's Liquidity Trap

The Federal Open Market Committee has arguably lost control of monetary policy and has placed America's banks in grave risk.

8,681 views