Fitch Downgrades US to AA+; Fintech Stocks Soar on Powell Inflation
S&P was the first to call out the growing lack of fiscal discipline in Washington, downgrading Uncle Sam in 2011
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 25, 20235 min read
Losses Mount Due to FOMC Policy "Tax"
Inflation is called a “hidden tax,” but lately the tax is not even barely concealed.
1,280 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 24, 20237 min read
Why is JPMorgan So Big? Double Leverage
So when we ask why large banks are so big, the answer is that the Federal Reserve Board allows large BHCs to use more leverage
1,003 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 16, 20236 min read
What Does Washington Federal Say About Bank Earnings?
We all dodged a bullet in Q2 2023 because the repricing of assets and deposits slowed from the crazy levels seen at the end of March.
951 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 15, 20235 min read
Bank Earnings: JPM, WFC & Citi
JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.
500 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 11, 20234 min read
Michael Barr's Capital Proposal Deliberately Misses the Point
The sad fact is that even with another 2% capital, most US banks are arguably insolvent thanks to the Fed “going big.”
1,170 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 5, 20236 min read
Housing, China & the Dollar
The world of secured finance is still coming to grips with the idea of several more increases in the federal funds rate this year.
952 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 3, 20237 min read
Top Five Banks: JPMorgan Leads the Pack
JPM is really a large mutual fund with a bank attached, as shown in the table below.
822 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 28, 20237 min read
Profile: Comerica Inc.
If the FOMC raises the target rate for fed funds further, then banks like CMA are likely to come under renewed selling pressure.
1,461 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 26, 20238 min read
Update: Mortgage Lenders, TBA Contango & MSRs
We look for lower prices for legacy MBS and MSRs as new allocations are used up and P&Ls sink deeper into the red...
1,104 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 21, 20235 min read
Update: GS, MS, SCHW, RJF & SF
If you agree with our view that the short-selling of the stock was mistaken, then the discount for SCHW is unwarranted.
887 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 19, 20238 min read
Powell Ought to Pivot to Bond Sales
If the FOMC raises fed funds further, bank failures and perhaps even a market access crisis for the Treasury are next.
1,660 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 14, 20235 min read
Update: Banks & Fintechs
With inflation fears moderating, look for Buy Side managers to buy bank stocks – even if earnings remain constrained...
784 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 12, 20235 min read
Bank Deposits vs US Treasury Bills
Remember, for every $1 in debt redeemed on the books of the Fed, a bank deposit disappears.
1,910 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 29, 20237 min read
Calculate the WAC of Bank of America
If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....
2,777 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 25, 20238 min read
Interest Rates, MSRs, Mortgage Putbacks & FICO Scores
Persistent talk about a 5.5% 30-year mortgage rate later this year is badly wrong as TBAs flip from 5.5% to 6% coupons for delivery in June
1,122 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 23, 20237 min read
PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks
To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate
2,431 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 21, 20232 min read
Mortgage Rates Headed for 7% as Residential Defaults Slowly Rise
We think that further Fed tightening, plus sales of MBS from FDIC and banks generally, may force mortgage rates higher into the 7% range
989 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 15, 20236 min read
Fed Asymmetry Threatens Credit Crisis
The price volatility injected into markets by the Fed is a primary reason why the FDIC cannot easily find buyers for smaller banks.
3,853 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 7, 20236 min read
Measuring Powell's Bank Rate Shock
Q: What happens to net-interest margin for banks when the rate of change in funding costs doubles or more in a single quarter?
3,508 views
Christopher Whalen
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