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Capital Confusion at Ginnie Mae & Mortgage Servicing Rights

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 26, 20246 min read

Capital Confusion at Ginnie Mae & Mortgage Servicing Rights

Ginnie Mae would rather have issuers raise the NPV of the MSR in cash today than take the price risk of holding the whole MSR through time.

640 views

Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 23, 20249 min read

Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC

Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.

1,434 views

Interview: Brian Barnier on the Fed and Inflation in Never Never Land

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 17, 20245 min read

Interview: Brian Barnier on the Fed and Inflation in Never Never Land

In the 1950s through maybe into the late 1990s, the FOMC could control mortgage interest rates....

548 views

Interview: Robert Brusca on the Federal Open Market Committee

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 10, 20249 min read

Interview: Robert Brusca on the Federal Open Market Committee

Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.

686 views

At the Federal Reserve Board, It's 1927 All Over Again

R. Christopher Whalen

May 30, 20247 min read

At the Federal Reserve Board, It's 1927 All Over Again

Obviously, there should be no interest rate cuts by the FOMC without deficit reduction by Congress.

1,098 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 24, 20246 min read

Interest Rates, Deficits & Inflation

We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025.

817 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 15, 20249 min read

Zombie Banks & Budget Deficits

The fixation with the idea of resolving large zombie banks without public expense is evidence of our collective delusion.

842 views

A Rising Floor on Interest Rates? | Update: Bank OZK

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 7, 20247 min read

A Rising Floor on Interest Rates? | Update: Bank OZK

Only in the strange confines of Washington do you still find people who think that the federal budget deficit is not a problem.

1,049 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 1, 20244 min read

Big Banks Good, Small Banks Bad

Based upon the three-month returns through the end of Q1 2024, NYCB ranked at the bottom of the 108 public banks in Peer Group 1.

771 views

Inflation & the Passion of Jerome Powell

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 28, 20245 min read

Inflation & the Passion of Jerome Powell

Perhaps Chairman Powell will be kind enough to fall on his sword on way out the door to make things easier for a future Chairman Waller...

1,075 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 19, 20247 min read

Top-Five Banks: Q1 '24 Earnings Setup

We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...

586 views

Should FOMC Members Avoid the Media? The WGA Top 100 Banks

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 4, 20246 min read

Should FOMC Members Avoid the Media? The WGA Top 100 Banks

More often than not, Fed Governors use media appearances to enhance their personal celebrity rather than doing their jobs.

596 views

Update: UWMC & Rocket; Rate Cut Dreams Fade

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 29, 20247 min read

Update: UWMC & Rocket; Rate Cut Dreams Fade

Industry leaders believe that the FHFA wants the GSEs to offer issuers "repurchase insurance" to the tune of 25bps per loan.

585 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 15, 20246 min read

Interest Rates, Mortgage Lenders & MSRs

While there are a great number of people inside the Fed who ponder the appropriate level of reserves in the system, they don't really know

648 views

Interview: Bill Kennedy of RiskBridge Advisors

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 24, 20249 min read

Interview: Bill Kennedy of RiskBridge Advisors

Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.

795 views

With Commercial Property, the Equity Goes First

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 20, 20245 min read

With Commercial Property, the Equity Goes First

The key thing to remember with commercial real estate is the change in price volatility and direction that has occurred since COVID.

1,274 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 8, 20248 min read

Bank Reserves & Treasury Auctions

As the public debt of the US grows, after all, the implicit claim of the Treasury on all private US assets also grows.

1,216 views

Rates Rally Financials, But Credit Fears Remain

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 15, 20237 min read

Rates Rally Financials, But Credit Fears Remain

The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.

483 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 8, 20234 min read

Stocks, Interest Rates and Reverse RPs

Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed

707 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 27, 20236 min read

The Moral Hazard of Jerome Powell

Instead of seeking authority from Congress, Chairman Bernanke and other members of the FOMC merely turned on the public spigot.

1,734 views