The Institutional Risk Analyst

US history over the past century was largely written by liberal Democrats, who at least rhetorically opposed tariffs and embraced inflation

Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates

If we told you that the Trump White House was planning to end the issuance of all agency MBS, how do you think this will impact financials?

When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.

But what happens if the US simply picks up the proverbial football and goes home?

Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns

Kevin Hasset is now effectively Powell’s boss on everything other than monetary policy.

Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling

In the strange world of Washington, speaking truth in public is a capital crime. Truth is often revealed accidentally.

With Gov Michael Barr stepping down from bank supervision, perhaps Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is more willing to test liquidity lower bound

Indeed, if President Trump wants to be rid of Jerome Powell he can simply impeach him for violations of the Federal Reserve Act

What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.

What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?

The asset returns of BOH are substandard vs its peers. We cannot discern any reason for this save management lapses.

As a practical matter, no Fed chairman or governor can function without the support of the White House and the US Treasury.

The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"

It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis. 

You can tell lies and damn lies about the idea of releasing Fannie and Freddie, but the SEC and FINRA cannot and will not say a word. 

The markets got their rate cut over the past six months and now may have to give some of that back.

If you believe that there is no recession coming in 2025, what is the logical response from an informed investment professional?