The Institutional Risk Analyst

The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap

The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.

Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.

Whether we are talking about corporate credit exposures or housing, the short trade may be the place to be over the next year.

Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?

There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.

The entire mortgage industry will have a single point of failure with the ICE/BKI combination

The assumption of price volatility on the part of consumers and business managers is at the heart of inflation expectations

Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over

Total noncore funding at GS was over $700 billion at the end of Q1 2022 vs $321 billion for MS.

The deflation of 2023 is about marking down all types of real assets to the price level that equates with a non-QE world.

Demand for risk-free collateral and liquidity is largely a function of how JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon feels about risk on any given day

QE has created a gigantic interest rate mismatch across markets for banks, non-banks and other financial intermediaries including the GSEs

Once again the US is coming out of a global crisis as the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.