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R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 21, 20236 min read

Is Stripe Worth $55 Billion? Really?

CEO Patrick Collison is guiding investors and the media to a $200 million profit in 2023. Selective disclosure??

559 views

Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 16, 20235 min read

Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?

As the FOMC moves short-term rates towards 6%, we expect to take another run at double-digit rates for prime residential mortgage loans.

1,427 views

Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 3, 20239 min read

Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs

The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace

843 views

Silvergate, Reverse RPs and the “Theology of Prosperity”

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 25, 20238 min read

Silvergate, Reverse RPs and the “Theology of Prosperity”

Crypto, of course, is not an asset as much as a bad idea that was given life by Quantitative Easing

873 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 23, 20236 min read

Update: Bank of America

We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks

536 views

Interview: Mike Patterson, Freedom Mortgage

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 19, 20239 min read

Interview: Mike Patterson, Freedom Mortgage

In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we speak to Mike Patterson, COO of Freedom Mortgage.

942 views

Goldman Drops Restatement; Jamie Dimon Drops the Ball on "Frank"

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 16, 20237 min read

Goldman Drops Restatement; Jamie Dimon Drops the Ball on "Frank"

The Fed’s de facto embrace of inflation encourages misallocation of economic resources on a grand scale....

750 views

Update: Truist, Charles Schwab, U.S. Bancorp & PNC Financial

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 4, 20237 min read

Update: Truist, Charles Schwab, U.S. Bancorp & PNC Financial

The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap

770 views

GNMA, FNMA Seize Assets from Reverse Mortgage Funding Estate

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 22, 20226 min read

GNMA, FNMA Seize Assets from Reverse Mortgage Funding Estate

The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.

1,409 views

Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 20, 20225 min read

Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup

Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.

568 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 9, 20225 min read

Blockchain, Crypto & Falling Liquidity

Whether we are talking about corporate credit exposures or housing, the short trade may be the place to be over the next year.

497 views

Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 19, 20221 min read

Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead

Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?

542 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 17, 20227 min read

Extension Risk Threatens US Banks

There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.

1,214 views

Interview: David Stevens on GNMA Capital Rule & ICE + BKI

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 11, 20228 min read

Interview: David Stevens on GNMA Capital Rule & ICE + BKI

The entire mortgage industry will have a single point of failure with the ICE/BKI combination

1,837 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 6, 20225 min read

Pink Floyd: Inflation & Asset Prices

The assumption of price volatility on the part of consumers and business managers is at the heart of inflation expectations

492 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 21, 20227 min read

Interest Rates, FinTechs & MSRs

Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over

568 views

Universal Banks | Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Raymond James & Stifel

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 15, 20229 min read

Universal Banks | Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Raymond James & Stifel

Total noncore funding at GS was over $700 billion at the end of Q1 2022 vs $321 billion for MS.

543 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 10, 20225 min read

The FOMC Embraces Debt Deflation

The deflation of 2023 is about marking down all types of real assets to the price level that equates with a non-QE world.

672 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 31, 20228 min read

Short Collateral & Long Tantrums

Demand for risk-free collateral and liquidity is largely a function of how JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon feels about risk on any given day

852 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 24, 20226 min read

Questions for Chairman Powell

QE has created a gigantic interest rate mismatch across markets for banks, non-banks and other financial intermediaries including the GSEs

505 views