FSOC Frets About Nonbank Risk; Goldman Sachs Stepping Back?
GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 11, 20233 min read
Bank Industry Review & Survey Q3 2023
The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations
865 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 25, 20235 min read
Losses Mount Due to FOMC Policy "Tax"
Inflation is called a “hidden tax,” but lately the tax is not even barely concealed.
1,280 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 11, 20234 min read
Michael Barr's Capital Proposal Deliberately Misses the Point
The sad fact is that even with another 2% capital, most US banks are arguably insolvent thanks to the Fed “going big.”
1,170 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 1, 20234 min read
First Take on FDIC Bank Data
If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem
1,057 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 29, 20237 min read
Calculate the WAC of Bank of America
If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....
2,777 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 23, 20237 min read
PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks
To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate
2,431 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 3, 20236 min read
Update: Charles Schwab (SCHW); Sagent Presentation
Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023
4,364 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 30, 20236 min read
QT, Interest Rates & Bank Solvency
At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.
2,254 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 26, 202310 min read
Update: New York Community Bank
We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.
1,155 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 23, 20236 min read
FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.
2,927 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 17, 20238 min read
Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings
We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio
2,718 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 14, 20238 min read
QE & the Yellen Banking Crisis
By any reasonable standard, Janet Yellen should have already resigned, but not in the strange world of Washington.
3,157 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 11, 20236 min read
Who Killed Silicon Valley Bank?; The IRA Bank Book Q1 2023
Last week not a single member of the Big Media managed to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the state of the US banking system
8,991 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 6, 20238 min read
Atlas Stumbles, Silvergate Wallows; 360 Mortgage v. Fortress (and RITM)
Are nonbank mortgage firms a risk to Ginnie Mae? Or is it really the other way around?
1,807 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 27, 20236 min read
QT & Powell's Liquidity Trap
The Federal Open Market Committee has arguably lost control of monetary policy and has placed America's banks in grave risk.
8,677 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 21, 20236 min read
Is Stripe Worth $55 Billion? Really?
CEO Patrick Collison is guiding investors and the media to a $200 million profit in 2023. Selective disclosure??
559 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 16, 20235 min read
Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?
As the FOMC moves short-term rates towards 6%, we expect to take another run at double-digit rates for prime residential mortgage loans.
1,427 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 3, 20239 min read
Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs
The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace
842 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 25, 20238 min read
Silvergate, Reverse RPs and the “Theology of Prosperity”
Crypto, of course, is not an asset as much as a bad idea that was given life by Quantitative Easing
873 views
Christopher Whalen
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