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R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 27, 20236 min read

The Moral Hazard of Jerome Powell

Instead of seeking authority from Congress, Chairman Bernanke and other members of the FOMC merely turned on the public spigot.

1,734 views

Yield Curve Normalization Good for Banks?

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 20, 20236 min read

Yield Curve Normalization Good for Banks?

We think that doing nothing is a fool’s trade, to be blunt, because the next Treasury refunding could pull market yields sharply higher.

1,043 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 17, 20236 min read

Recessions Signs in Texas & China

The mood in the Dallas mortgage community is subdued, much like the atmosphere after an especially good party.

535 views

SoftBank as Systemic Event; Update: Charles Schwab & Co

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 27, 20239 min read

SoftBank as Systemic Event; Update: Charles Schwab & Co

The public behavior and decision-making processes of SoftBank suggest that the organization is in trouble.

1,281 views

FSOC Frets About Nonbank Risk; Goldman Sachs Stepping Back?

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 21, 20236 min read

FSOC Frets About Nonbank Risk; Goldman Sachs Stepping Back?

GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.

617 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 11, 20233 min read

Bank Industry Review & Survey Q3 2023

The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations

865 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 25, 20235 min read

Losses Mount Due to FOMC Policy "Tax"

Inflation is called a “hidden tax,” but lately the tax is not even barely concealed.

1,280 views

Michael Barr's Capital Proposal Deliberately Misses the Point

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 11, 20234 min read

Michael Barr's Capital Proposal Deliberately Misses the Point

The sad fact is that even with another 2% capital, most US banks are arguably insolvent thanks to the Fed “going big.”

1,170 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 1, 20234 min read

First Take on FDIC Bank Data

If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem

1,057 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 29, 20237 min read

Calculate the WAC of Bank of America

If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....

2,777 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 23, 20237 min read

PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks

To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate

2,432 views

Update: Charles Schwab (SCHW); Sagent Presentation

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 3, 20236 min read

Update: Charles Schwab (SCHW); Sagent Presentation

Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023

4,364 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 30, 20236 min read

QT, Interest Rates & Bank Solvency

At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.

2,254 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 26, 202310 min read

Update: New York Community Bank

We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.

1,155 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 23, 20236 min read

FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.

2,927 views

Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 17, 20238 min read

Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings

We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio

2,718 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 14, 20238 min read

QE & the Yellen Banking Crisis

By any reasonable standard, Janet Yellen should have already resigned, but not in the strange world of Washington.

3,157 views

Who Killed Silicon Valley Bank?; The IRA Bank Book Q1 2023

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 11, 20236 min read

Who Killed Silicon Valley Bank?; The IRA Bank Book Q1 2023

Last week not a single member of the Big Media managed to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the state of the US banking system

8,997 views

Atlas Stumbles, Silvergate Wallows; 360 Mortgage v. Fortress (and RITM)

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 6, 20238 min read

Atlas Stumbles, Silvergate Wallows; 360 Mortgage v. Fortress (and RITM)

Are nonbank mortgage firms a risk to Ginnie Mae? Or is it really the other way around?

1,807 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 27, 20236 min read

QT & Powell's Liquidity Trap

The Federal Open Market Committee has arguably lost control of monetary policy and has placed America's banks in grave risk.

8,681 views