The Institutional Risk Analyst

Who are the two most powerful people in the Trump White House?

Is the flow of toxic waste pouring from busted private equity portfolios into credit trades a threat to insurance companies? Yup.

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates

When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.

President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico. 

But what happens if the US simply picks up the proverbial football and goes home?

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now reports up to National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett.

Kevin Hasset is now effectively Powell’s boss on everything other than monetary policy.

Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling

A look at the bottom quarter of WGA Bank Top 100 Index. We view TCBI as a work in progress. But kudos to KEY...

The real threat of tariffs announced by Trump is not inflation, but rather a LT decline in the dollar as the global reserve currency

GS had not appeared in the top 25 since we began the indices a year ago, while MS had made it three times.

In the strange world of Washington, speaking truth in public is a capital crime. Truth is often revealed accidentally.

The SVB duration management from 2020 onward was recklessly negligent by any reasonable standard

Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.

With Gov Michael Barr stepping down from bank supervision, perhaps Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is more willing to test liquidity lower bound

As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.

Indeed, if President Trump wants to be rid of Jerome Powell he can simply impeach him for violations of the Federal Reserve Act

What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.