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R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 268 min read

Fed Fiddles as Liquidity Risk Looms

Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later

1,162 views

Update: Block Inc, Nu Holdings & Guild Holdings

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 157 min read

Update: Block Inc, Nu Holdings & Guild Holdings

Notice that SQ co-founder Jack Dorsey styles himself as "block head" in the corp roster, a silly affectation that does not help the stock

409 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 65 min read

Financials: Post-Trump Victory Notes

The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.

1,092 views

Housing Finance Outlook; PennyMac, Mr. Cooper & NYCB/Flagstar

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 289 min read

Housing Finance Outlook; PennyMac, Mr. Cooper & NYCB/Flagstar

NYCB and the unsold rent-stabilized assets left over from the failure of SBNY are two little surprises waiting for the next POTUS.

719 views

Powell Overshoots the Runway; Update: American Express & Charles Schwab

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 237 min read

Powell Overshoots the Runway; Update: American Express & Charles Schwab

Last year, when a lot of people were predicting the demise of SCHW, we told our readers to calm down.

705 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 215 min read

Will BRICS Topple the Dollar?

Whenever you hear the magic words "blockchain" and "digital tokens," it's a good guess that whatever follows is nonsense.

699 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 16 min read

The Bull Case for Large Banks

If you believe that there is no recession coming in 2025, what is the logical response from an informed investment professional?

605 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 246 min read

Update: Our Top Five Ideas

How will the sudden shift in Fed policy impact financials? Are we headed for a recession?

654 views

Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 212 min read

Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF

Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI

720 views

Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 257 min read

Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?

SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.

719 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 217 min read

New & Old Names in Nonbank Finance

In dollar terms, the moves in 2023 were tiny vs the post March rally in 2020.

477 views

The Powell Hedge Fund Drives Private Market Instability

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 127 min read

The Powell Hedge Fund Drives Private Market Instability

In 2019, the FOMC essentially nationalized the US money markets, eliminating private price discovery for a representation of a market.

879 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 86 min read

Market Volatility and Loan Defaults

The market tantrum which began on Friday was largely over by the market close on the following Tuesday.

1,182 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 46 min read

Inside the Private Credit Trade

Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.

1,218 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 22 min read

WGA Releases Bank Quarterly Q2 2024

The unrealized losses on COVID era securities remain a huge problem for banks large and small, especially if long-term interest rates rise

792 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 157 min read

The Bull Case for Large Banks

Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?

563 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 59 min read

Debt Deflation in CRE? PFSI, COOP & RKT

If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC

686 views

The Death of Leverage; What's the WAC of Bank America?

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 247 min read

The Death of Leverage; What's the WAC of Bank America?

The yield on BAC's $320 billion commercial and industrial (C&I) book was just 5.4% or more than 150bp below peer at year-end 2023.

935 views

GSE Release? Really? Update: Ally Financial

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 1110 min read

GSE Release? Really? Update: Ally Financial

You take the GSEs out of conservatorship, the big banks led by JPMorgan and U.S. Bancorp will own the conventional loan market

1,985 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 137 min read

Inside the WGA Bank Top 10 Index

So what makes the WGA Bank Top 10 unique? Below we provide some quantitative and qualitative comments on each of the ten best US banks

627 views