Brief: The Return of Home Equity Loans
Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023
top of page
The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2024 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 12, 20227 min read
Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
700 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 21, 20227 min read
Interest Rates, FinTechs & MSRs
Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over
568 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 4, 20226 min read
Hard Landings & Systemic Crypto
Putting dollar leverage under crypto tokens – that is to say, under nothing – makes for infinite dollar risk.
572 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 29, 20228 min read
Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi
Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet
575 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 20, 20228 min read
The Fed and Housing
Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.
1,616 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 12, 20227 min read
QE = Supranormal Credit Risk
Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell
562 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 2, 20227 min read
Update: Upstart Holdings & Cross River Bank
If investors and partner banks don’t want to buy UPST loans at current market rates, then the game is over in an originate to sell model
776 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 23, 20227 min read
Equity Market Valuations & Quantitative Tightening
The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.
1,004 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 4, 20225 min read
Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
498 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 20, 20225 min read
Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
547 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 17, 20226 min read
Profile: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...
441 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 28, 20226 min read
Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
397 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 15, 20225 min read
QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads
There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when
862 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 21, 20225 min read
Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and Post-QE Deflation
The Powell FOMC has lost all credibility when it comes to financial markets or managing inflation and independence from the US Treasury
788 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 12, 20228 min read
Q4 Earnings | Big Banks & QE
In the short-run rising interest rates and spreads will help bank earnings. But where is the next credit hot spot?
668 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 6, 20225 min read
Interest Rates, Stocks & MSRs
We think the chart below from FRED is worth any amount of words on the impact of QE on equity market valuations.
541 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 4, 20226 min read
Mortgage Crises Yesterday and Today
As we move into Q4 2021 earnings, keep your eyes peeled for news of restructuring of urban commercial commercial and multifamily properties
787 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 22, 20219 min read
Update: Block Inc. & Upstart Holdings
Is SQ really, REALLY worth 25x book value? Our respectful answer to that question is no.
332 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 13, 202111 min read
A Bull Case for US Banks?
We ask whether bank fundamentals are starting to catch up to the very full equity market valuations , up 40% since the end of 2020
515 views
Christopher Whalen
bottom of page