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GNMA, FNMA Seize Assets from Reverse Mortgage Funding Estate

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 22, 20226 min read

GNMA, FNMA Seize Assets from Reverse Mortgage Funding Estate

The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.

1,409 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 12, 20224 min read

Rising Interest Rates? Really?

Since 2008, dollar swap spreads have traded below Treasury yields, suggesting a persistent demand for dollars coming from offshore.

824 views

Bank M2M Losses Surge in Q3 to $347 Billion

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 6, 20221 min read

Bank M2M Losses Surge in Q3 to $347 Billion

Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion

519 views

Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 19, 20221 min read

Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead

Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?

542 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 7, 20227 min read

Brief: The Return of Home Equity Loans

Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023

1,339 views

Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 12, 20227 min read

Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup

How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?

700 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Aug 21, 20227 min read

Interest Rates, FinTechs & MSRs

Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over

568 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 4, 20226 min read

Hard Landings & Systemic Crypto

Putting dollar leverage under crypto tokens – that is to say, under nothing – makes for infinite dollar risk.

572 views

Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 29, 20228 min read

Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi

Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet

575 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 20, 20228 min read

The Fed and Housing

Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.

1,616 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 12, 20227 min read

QE = Supranormal Credit Risk

Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell

562 views

Update: Upstart Holdings & Cross River Bank

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 2, 20227 min read

Update: Upstart Holdings & Cross River Bank

If investors and partner banks don’t want to buy UPST loans at current market rates, then the game is over in an originate to sell model

778 views

Equity Market Valuations & Quantitative Tightening

R. Christopher Whalen

May 23, 20227 min read

Equity Market Valuations & Quantitative Tightening

The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.

1,004 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 4, 20225 min read

Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs

Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.

498 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 20, 20225 min read

Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk

Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat

547 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 17, 20226 min read

Profile: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs

Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...

442 views

Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 28, 20226 min read

Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC

Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end

399 views

QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 15, 20225 min read

QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads

There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when

862 views

Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and Post-QE Deflation

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 21, 20225 min read

Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and Post-QE Deflation

The Powell FOMC has lost all credibility when it comes to financial markets or managing inflation and independence from the US Treasury

788 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 12, 20228 min read

Q4 Earnings | Big Banks & QE

In the short-run rising interest rates and spreads will help bank earnings. But where is the next credit hot spot?

670 views