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R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 19, 20247 min read

Top-Five Banks: Q1 '24 Earnings Setup

We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...

586 views

Does Kathy Hochul Have a New York Community Bank Endgame?

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 6, 20247 min read

Does Kathy Hochul Have a New York Community Bank Endgame?

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg ought to tell New York State to take over the rent controlled loans from Signature, NYCB and other lenders...

2,015 views1 comment

NYCB Cleans House Badly, NAIC Gives Insurers Pass on Realized Losses

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 1, 20247 min read

NYCB Cleans House Badly, NAIC Gives Insurers Pass on Realized Losses

Sad to say, the business at NYCB is doing better than you'd think reading the bank's absurd disclosure.

1,899 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 30, 20246 min read

Good, Bad & Ugly: AXP, SOFI & BAC

AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.

855 views

With Commercial Property, the Equity Goes First

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 20, 20245 min read

With Commercial Property, the Equity Goes First

The key thing to remember with commercial real estate is the change in price volatility and direction that has occurred since COVID.

1,274 views

Banks Slow Walk Commercial Real Estate Losses

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 18, 20247 min read

Banks Slow Walk Commercial Real Estate Losses

As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses

763 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 11, 20245 min read

Bank Earnings Setup Q4 2023

Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.

619 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 3, 20243 min read

Comments on Basel III Endgame

The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk

750 views

Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 21, 20237 min read

Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

614 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 19, 20236 min read

Another Progressive New Year?

Many participants in the equity markets are chewing on ski tips this holiday season after boldly predicting lower interest rates in 2024

724 views

Rates Rally Financials, But Credit Fears Remain

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 15, 20237 min read

Rates Rally Financials, But Credit Fears Remain

The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.

483 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 29, 20236 min read

Update: Flying Fintechs & Zombie Banks

COIN has been helped by a groundswell of positive comment about crypto in 2023...

660 views

FSOC Frets About Nonbank Risk; Goldman Sachs Stepping Back?

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 21, 20236 min read

FSOC Frets About Nonbank Risk; Goldman Sachs Stepping Back?

GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.

617 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 11, 20233 min read

Bank Industry Review & Survey Q3 2023

The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations

865 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 5, 20236 min read

Consumer Credit Collapsing? Not Yet...

Sadly for the bears in the audience, nothing would make the banks happier than if consumers would use more credit....

1,093 views

Mortgage Lenders Face Return of a Purchase Market

R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 8, 20237 min read

Mortgage Lenders Face Return of a Purchase Market

The “winners” in the mortgage sector will be those larger players with equally large servicing books that can access bank funding

903 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 9, 20236 min read

Profile: Synchrony Financial

What can SYF tell us about the bleeding edge of unsecured consumer credit?

667 views

Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 13, 20238 min read

Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?

Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions

1,050 views

Mortgage Wrap; PennyMac Financial, Rithm Capital & MSRs

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 9, 20237 min read

Mortgage Wrap; PennyMac Financial, Rithm Capital & MSRs

We suspect that the IMBs will be sellers of conventional assets to defend their Ginnie Mae MSRs. Banks may be buyers of conventional assets

535 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 23, 20236 min read

Update: Bank of America

We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks

536 views