Earnings Setup: Consumer Lenders | ALLY AXP AX BCS COF SOFI SYF
The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 710 min read
Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test
Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities
3,034 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 37 min read
Who Leads the Asset Gatherers? | SCHW, MS, GS, AMP, RJF & SF
The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.
594 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 18 min read
USSC Kills Chevron | Zombie Banks Pass Stress Tests?
The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.
904 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 239 min read
Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC
Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.
1,431 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 176 min read
Update: BMO + Bank of the West = ?
BMO arguably has the weakest reserve position among the large Canadian banks....
984 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 129 min read
Will Credit Risk Transfer Save the Banks? Are MSRs Overvalued?
How much in synthetic CRT transactions will be done in 2024? Our best guess is many hundreds of billions globally...
760 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 76 min read
Faux Bear Raids on OZK and AX? But More Trouble Ahead for CRE Equity
We remind readers that unrealized losses on securities are still a bigger problem for banks than CRE.
625 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 46 min read
Inside the Private Credit Trade
Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.
1,216 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 22 min read
WGA Releases Bank Quarterly Q2 2024
The unrealized losses on COVID era securities remain a huge problem for banks large and small, especially if long-term interest rates rise
792 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 287 min read
Inflation & CRE Deflation Too? UMB Financial + Heartland = ?
With a budget deficit projected to be $1.8 trillion in 2024, the odds of the FOMC actually controlling inflation are pretty low.
767 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 157 min read
The Bull Case for Large Banks
Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?
563 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 59 min read
Debt Deflation in CRE? PFSI, COOP & RKT
If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC
686 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 293 min read
WGA Bank Top 100 Index | Q2 2024
Our Bank Top 10 and Top 25 indices continue to outperform the industry benchmarks, but the broader samples show growing financial stress
577 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 247 min read
The Death of Leverage; What's the WAC of Bank America?
The yield on BAC's $320 billion commercial and industrial (C&I) book was just 5.4% or more than 150bp below peer at year-end 2023.
935 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 77 min read
A Rising Floor on Interest Rates? | Update: Bank OZK
Only in the strange confines of Washington do you still find people who think that the federal budget deficit is not a problem.
1,049 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 197 min read
Top-Five Banks: Q1 '24 Earnings Setup
We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...
586 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 67 min read
Does Kathy Hochul Have a New York Community Bank Endgame?
FDIC Chairman Gruenberg ought to tell New York State to take over the rent controlled loans from Signature, NYCB and other lenders...
2,012 views1 comment
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 17 min read
NYCB Cleans House Badly, NAIC Gives Insurers Pass on Realized Losses
Sad to say, the business at NYCB is doing better than you'd think reading the bank's absurd disclosure.
1,897 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 306 min read
Good, Bad & Ugly: AXP, SOFI & BAC
AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.
855 views
Christopher Whalen
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