Kamikaze GSE Release?
Today’s correspondents of the GSEs under conservatorship may become tomorrow’s competition for private GSEs.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
5 days ago8 min read
Fed Fiddles as Liquidity Risk Looms
Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later
936 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 187 min read
Trump, Deficits & Credit Default Swaps
As a practical matter, no Fed chairman or governor can function without the support of the White House and the US Treasury.
875 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 157 min read
Update: Block Inc, Nu Holdings & Guild Holdings
Notice that SQ co-founder Jack Dorsey styles himself as "block head" in the corp roster, a silly affectation that does not help the stock
396 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 115 min read
Q: Is JPMorgan Overinflated?
The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"
1,349 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 237 min read
Powell Overshoots the Runway; Update: American Express & Charles Schwab
Last year, when a lot of people were predicting the demise of SCHW, we told our readers to calm down.
702 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 187 min read
Update: Citigroup, Bank America and Goldman Sachs
How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?
451 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 166 min read
Should TD Bank Rethink US Retail?
WFC is not even out of dodge yet, but TD has cut off the fingers of one hand in yakuza style and is now headed for years of misery
590 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 228 min read
GSE Release Under Trump? Post-Rate Cut Margin Calls??
Why should a private Fannie Mae be a 20% risk weight under Basel III, but PFSI or Mr. Cooper (COOP) are 100%?
473 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 162 min read
IRA Bank Book Q3 2024 Industry Survey
The Q3 interest rate rally still leaves the industry with a negative
capital position since the average securities yield is only 3%
367 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 115 min read
WGA Bank Top 100+ | Large Banks Retreat, Small Banks Rise
The big story nobody is discussing is the fact that large banks led by JPM, BAC and TFC continue to sell off briskly
421 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 212 min read
Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
718 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 257 min read
Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?
SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.
719 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 189 min read
The Top Seven Banks: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC & TFC
Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.
691 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 55 min read
Wine, Grapes & Inflation; WGA Bank Top 50 Index Q3 2024
The WGA Bank Top 50 is, well, the top half of the population, but far better in quality than the bottom quartile.
652 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 28 min read
Stocks Swoon, Retail Credit Rises: PYPL, SQ & ARES
The rotation away from institutional investors to retail funding source for the $1.7 trillion direct lending market is an ominous sign
601 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 278 min read
Update: New York Community Bank & Mr. Cooper
Joe Otting does not seem to understand the value of the Flagstar correspondent lending and mortgage servicing business...
628 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 245 min read
Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services
Of note, PFSI has been growing share in wholesale, a direct challenge to UWMC
337 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 186 min read
Update: Pinnacle Financial & Synthetic Credit Risk Transfer
We hear in the channel that banks with festering multifamily exposures are paying north of 10% for similar CRT transactions.
788 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 175 min read
Bank Earnings: JPM, BAC, AX, GS & SCHW
GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...
478 views
Christopher Whalen
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