Powell Overshoots the Runway; Update: American Express & Charles Schwab
Last year, when a lot of people were predicting the demise of SCHW, we told our readers to calm down.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 187 min read
Update: Citigroup, Bank America and Goldman Sachs
How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?
428 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 166 min read
Should TD Bank Rethink US Retail?
WFC is not even out of dodge yet, but TD has cut off the fingers of one hand in yakuza style and is now headed for years of misery
566 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 228 min read
GSE Release Under Trump? Post-Rate Cut Margin Calls??
Why should a private Fannie Mae be a 20% risk weight under Basel III, but PFSI or Mr. Cooper (COOP) are 100%?
458 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 162 min read
IRA Bank Book Q3 2024 Industry Survey
The Q3 interest rate rally still leaves the industry with a negative
capital position since the average securities yield is only 3%
365 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 115 min read
WGA Bank Top 100+ | Large Banks Retreat, Small Banks Rise
The big story nobody is discussing is the fact that large banks led by JPM, BAC and TFC continue to sell off briskly
417 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 212 min read
Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
715 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 257 min read
Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?
SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.
716 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 189 min read
The Top Seven Banks: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC & TFC
Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.
684 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 55 min read
Wine, Grapes & Inflation; WGA Bank Top 50 Index Q3 2024
The WGA Bank Top 50 is, well, the top half of the population, but far better in quality than the bottom quartile.
645 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 28 min read
Stocks Swoon, Retail Credit Rises: PYPL, SQ & ARES
The rotation away from institutional investors to retail funding source for the $1.7 trillion direct lending market is an ominous sign
599 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 278 min read
Update: New York Community Bank & Mr. Cooper
Joe Otting does not seem to understand the value of the Flagstar correspondent lending and mortgage servicing business...
627 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 255 min read
Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services
Of note, PFSI has been growing share in wholesale, a direct challenge to UWMC
334 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 186 min read
Update: Pinnacle Financial & Synthetic Credit Risk Transfer
We hear in the channel that banks with festering multifamily exposures are paying north of 10% for similar CRT transactions.
766 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 175 min read
Bank Earnings: JPM, BAC, AX, GS & SCHW
GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...
478 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 115 min read
Earnings Setup: Consumer Lenders | ALLY AXP AX BCS COF SOFI SYF
The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change
535 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 710 min read
Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test
Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities
3,003 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 37 min read
Who Leads the Asset Gatherers? | SCHW, MS, GS, AMP, RJF & SF
The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.
593 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 18 min read
USSC Kills Chevron | Zombie Banks Pass Stress Tests?
The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.
903 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 239 min read
Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC
Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.
1,429 views
Christopher Whalen
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