The Institutional Risk Analyst

Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks

Many voices in the media and elsewhere have been predicting an economic slump since 2023. Didn’t happen, but 2025 is very different.

A more efficient mortgage backed securities market benefits everyone by lowering mortgage rates and making home ownership more affordable.

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates

There is an old rule on Wall Street that industry sectors like airlines and auto manufacturers are trades rather than investments...

President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico. 

Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns

Like 2023 and 2024, the year 2025 may end up being relatively stable, yet investors remain worried about stealth externalities.

A look at the bottom quarter of WGA Bank Top 100 Index. We view TCBI as a work in progress. But kudos to KEY...

Like many names in the fintech space, growing profits and earnings are usually an indication that a stock is exiting max upside period

When President Donald Trump says that interest rates are too high, he may not fully understand just how right he is about the cost of credit

Without profits from commissions and capital markets, BAC would have reported a down quarter due to higher funding and operating expenses.

Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.

Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.

As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.

Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.

When SCHW surpassed U.S. Bancorp in size in 2021, you knew that SCHW’s leadership had gotten lost. 

Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later