The Institutional Risk Analyst

Now let’s take a look at how some members of the banking and fintech sector are doing in the first month of 2024.

Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.

As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses

Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.

As the public debt of the US grows, after all, the implicit claim of the Treasury on all private US assets also grows.

The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk

Is AFRM maturing from a hot new fintech entrant to a familiar face headed for a bank license?? Yikes.

This morning, banks are buying funding from the BTFP below 4.85% and selling Fed funds at 5.5%. 

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

Many participants in the equity markets are chewing on ski tips this holiday season after boldly predicting lower interest rates in 2024

The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.

Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed

COIN has been helped by a groundswell of positive comment about crypto in 2023...

We think that doing nothing is a fool’s trade, to be blunt, because the next Treasury refunding could pull market yields sharply higher.

If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity

Was the breakdown of the normally stable and, indeed, routine workings of the Clearinghouse the result of bad actors?

Rising interest rates are not good for bank earnings or bank equity valuations.

Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"

The Powell Fed needs to drop short-term interest rates back down to 4% and leave them there indefinitely.

The legal dispute between Ginnie Mae and Texas Capital Bank makes additional defaults by HECM lenders more likely...