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Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?

R. Christopher Whalen

7 minutes ago8 min read

Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?

Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.

8 views

R. Christopher Whalen

6 days ago8 min read

Update: Top Bank Asset Managers

As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.

201 views

Liquidity & Rates Fall as Trump Trades Beckon

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 23, 20247 min read

Liquidity & Rates Fall as Trump Trades Beckon

What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.

406 views

Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 18, 20247 min read

Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.

Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

523 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 16, 20243 min read

The IRA Bank Book Q4 2024

WGA notes that bank stock prices have soared in the second half of 2024, with the WGA Bank Top 10 Index up 40% year-to-date in 2024.

292 views

Liquidity Preference: SVB Financial Group, WaMu & Reemerging GSEs

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 12, 20247 min read

Liquidity Preference: SVB Financial Group, WaMu & Reemerging GSEs

Selling the Treasury's control position in the GSEs while dragging the furious shareholders along behind is not an attractive opportunity

457 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 10, 202415 min read

Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...

Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.

2,958 views

WGA Bank Top 10 Index | Time to Short Financials?

R. Christopher Whalen

Dec 9, 20249 min read

WGA Bank Top 10 Index | Time to Short Financials?

When SCHW surpassed U.S. Bancorp in size in 2021, you knew that SCHW’s leadership had gotten lost.

467 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 26, 20248 min read

Fed Fiddles as Liquidity Risk Looms

Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later

1,179 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 20, 20246 min read

Profile: Bank of Hawaii & QE

The asset returns of BOH are substandard vs its peers. We cannot discern any reason for this save management lapses.

435 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 11, 20245 min read

Q: Is JPMorgan Overinflated?

The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"

1,367 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 6, 20245 min read

Financials: Post-Trump Victory Notes

The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.

1,095 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Nov 1, 20248 min read

Fed Duration Trap Threatens Banks, SOMA

It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis.

1,073 views

Powell Overshoots the Runway; Update: American Express & Charles Schwab

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 23, 20247 min read

Powell Overshoots the Runway; Update: American Express & Charles Schwab

Last year, when a lot of people were predicting the demise of SCHW, we told our readers to calm down.

705 views

Update: Citigroup, Bank America and Goldman Sachs

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 18, 20247 min read

Update: Citigroup, Bank America and Goldman Sachs

How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?

454 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 16, 20246 min read

Should TD Bank Rethink US Retail?

WFC is not even out of dodge yet, but TD has cut off the fingers of one hand in yakuza style and is now headed for years of misery

624 views

Will Rohit Chopra Kill Basel III? Shrinking NIM at JPM and WFC

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 14, 20245 min read

Will Rohit Chopra Kill Basel III? Shrinking NIM at JPM and WFC

In opposing Basel III, Chopra is doing the bidding of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) but big banks are very happy to have no rule at all.

642 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 9, 20247 min read

Citigroup + (Cenlar - Black Knight) = ?

The Citi decision to exit mortgage servicing perhaps made sense in 2017, but today not so much.

415 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Oct 1, 20246 min read

The Bull Case for Large Banks

If you believe that there is no recession coming in 2025, what is the logical response from an informed investment professional?

605 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Sep 16, 20242 min read

IRA Bank Book Q3 2024 Industry Survey

The Q3 interest rate rally still leaves the industry with a negative capital position since the average securities yield is only 3%

367 views